Patrick J. Michaels

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Patrick J. Michaels (±1942- ), also known as Pat Michaels, is a global warming skeptic who argues that global warming models are fatally flawed and, in any event, we should take no action because new technologies will soon replace those that emit greenhouse gases.

Michaels is Editor of the World Climate Report, a blog published by New Hope Environmental Services, "an advocacy science consulting firm" he founded and runs. In an affidavit in a Vermont court case, Michaels described the "mission" of the firm as being to "publicize findings on climate change and scientific and social perspectives that may not otherwise appear in the popular literature or media. This entails both response research and public commentary." In effect, New Hope Environmental Services is a PR firm.

Michaels' firm does not disclose who its clients are, but leaked documents have revealed that several were power utilities which operate coal power stations. On a 2007 academic CV, Michaels disclosed that prior to creating his firm he had received funding from the Edison Electric Institute and the Western Fuels Association. He has also been a frequent speaker with leading coal and energy companies as well as coal and other industry lobby groups.

Michaels is also associated with a number of think tanks and advocacy groups which dispute global warming. He is a Visiting Scientist with the George C. Marshall Institute, a Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies with the Cato Institute and a member of the Advisory Board of the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow.

From the Halls of Academic To the Speaker Circuit

Michaels was, until late 2007, a Professor of Environmental Science at the University of Virgina. A biographical note at that time described Michaels "research interests" as being "The core issue over the next ten years will not be "How much will the climate warm?" but, rather, "Why did it warm so little?" My research also leads me to believe that the next decade will see the emergence of a paradigm of "robust earth," as opposed to the fashionable "fragility" concept ... It is entirely possible that human influence on the atmosphere is not necessarily deleterious and that it is simply another component of the dynamic planet. Tomorrow's scientific and science-policy leaders will have to recognize this verity in our attempts to maintain a productive and diverse planet."

Michaels completed a bachelors degree in biological sciences degree in 1971 and a Masters degree in Biology in 1975 at the University of Chicago. He completed a Ph.D. in Ecological Climatology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1979 on the topic of "Atmospheric Anomalies and Crop Yields in North America".

Between 1977 and the late 1980's most of Michaels publications related to the impacts of climate variations on the yields of wheat, corn and soybean, the spread of southern pine beetle infestations, gypsy moth research and thunderstorm patterns. During this period most of his funding was from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Forest Service, the Virginia State Climatology Office. He also undertook work for NASA and the United States Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on climatology projects.

From the mid-1980's on, Michaels become involved in more topical projects. In 1986 and 1987 he authored papers and a report on siting considerations for a high-level nuclear waste dump.

In 1988 Michaels became more active in writing on global warming issues. The following year he was involved in the writing of a technical report the impact of sulfur dioxide emissions in Virginia , and the following year was involved in a project funded to the tune of $40,000 by the Cyprus Minerals Company.

But during 1989 and 1990 it was as a global warming skeptic that Michaels was really making a name for himself. In 1989 Michaels made several appearances before Congressional committees, an appearance at a Brookings Institution event and invitations to speak to a smattering of industry groups. Some of the invitations he accepted were to speak to the Executive Board of the National Coal Association in Phoenix, Arizona, the annual meeting of the Western Fuels Association in Denver and the International Pittsburgh Coal Conference, the Edison Electric Institute and Basin Electric Power Cooperative.

Subsequently, Michaels was a favoured speaker for corporate, think tank and conservative advocacy group events. Between 1990 and 1993, Michaels spoke at events organized by the Consumer Alert, the North Carolina Coal Institute, the Pacific Research Institute, the Kentucky Coal Operators Association, the Chemical Manufacturers Association, the Virginia Coal Council, the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, AMAX Energy Corporation, Consolidation Coal Corporation, Cincinnati Gas and Electric, Chief Executive Conference on Global Warming, the National Association of Manufacturers, the National Aerosol Association, the Massie Coal Corporation, the Indiana Coal Mining Institute, the Arizona Electric Power Cooperative, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Virginia Petroleum Council, the Heritage Foundation, the American Legislative Exchange Council, the Wyoming Mining Association, Virginia Power, Amax Energy Corporation, American Electric Power, Alabama Electric Power Cooperative, the American Policy Center, the World Coal Conference, American Public Power Association, American Mining Congress, Maine Conservation Rights Institute, the Federalist Society, the Kentucky Mining Institute, Denver Coal Club and the Ashland Oil Corporation. (See Patrick Michaels speaking engagements for further details).

Michaels was also a "supporter" of The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition, an industry-funded PR front group created in 1993 and run by the APCO Worldwide public relations firm. It worked to hang the label of "junk science" on environmentalists. The group is now defunct.

In a 1992 opinion column, Micheals wrote of government agencies that they "exist to perpetuate themselves, and to expand their territory and their political influence. Government agencies behave just like people. The agency goals cannot be accomplished without the largesse of Congress. Thus begins a peculiar back-scratching in which political patrons define a particular problem as The Most Important in History. The agency responds by testifying that the end is near unless a few billion is spent pronto-and then it probably will be even worse than we thought. Such issues and constituencies include the ozone "hole" (NASA, NSF, EPA); global warming (NASA, NSF, DOE, EPA); sexually transmitted diseases (National Institutes of Health, NSF); or roughage shortages (NIH, U.S. Department of Agriculture). The list is as infinite as is the predilection for Homo sapiens to have nightmares."

Funding

Michaels prominence also led to new funding from fossil fuel interests. In 1991-92 an anonymous donor made of grant of $50,000 to Michaels for his work on climate change, the Edison Electric Institute paid $25,000 between 1992 and 1995 for a literature review of climate change and updates. Western Fuels Association contributed $63,000 for "research on global climate change" and between 1994 $98,000 from Gesamtverband des Deutschen Stenkohlenbergbaus in Germany. As Michaels corporate funding was taking off, in 1994 he founded and is the sole owner of New Hope Environmental Services, which refers to itself as "an advocacy science consulting firm". Aside from publishing the World Climate Report, the firm boasts that its staff often provide testimony to Congress and commentary on climate issues to media outlets..

Writing in Harpers Magazine in 1995, author Ross Gelbspan noted that "Michaels has received more than $115,000 over the last four years from coal and energy interests. World Climate Review, a quarterly he founded that routinely debunks climate concerns, was funded by Western Fuels."

One substantial benefit in having created New Hope Environmental Services was that corporate funders could route financial support for Michaels work via the firm which was under no obligation to disclose who its clients were. After its was created, further corporate funding was noticeably absent from Michaels university curriculum vitae. He continued to attract public funding for projects, such as $195,000 from the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality for "research on science and policy on global warming." He also gained $98,000 from the Cato Institute to underwrite the the production of The Satanic Gases: Clearing the Air about Global Warming, a book he co-authored with Robert C. Balling, Jr.

A furor was raised when it was revealed in 2006 that, at customer expense, Patrick Michaels was quietly paid $100,000 by an electric utility, Intermountain Rural Electric Association (IREA), which burns coal to help confuse the issue of global warming. In a nine-page memo, the general manager of the Colorado-based IREA co-operative, Stanley Lewandowski Jr., railed against the the scientific consensus supporting the need to curb greenhouse gases. The memo, which was circulated in mid-July 2006 to more than 900 members of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, was leaked to ABC News. "We decided to support Dr. Patrick Michaels and his group (New Hope Environmental Services, Inc.) ... In February of this year, IREA alone contributed $100,000 to Dr. Michaels." Lewandowski also wrote that IREA had rattled the tin for Michaels amongst other groups and "have obtained additional contributions and pledges for Dr. Michaels group." The memo also reports on others campaigning against taking action to limit climate change. "The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) has been running two ads in ten states that were financed by General Motors and the Ford Motor Company," he wrote.

Asked about his funding on CNN in August 2002 Michaels rejected the suggestion that industry funding influenced his work. "Well, you know, most of my funding, the vast majority, comes from taxpayer-supported entities. I would make the argument that if funding colors research, I should be certainly biased more towards the taxpayers, of which I am one, than towards industry. But the fact of the matter is, numbers are objective," he said.

Working for the Auto Industry

In 2007 Michaels was retained by Green Mountain Chrysler Plymouth Dodge Jeep, Green Mountain Ford Mercury, Joe Tornabene's GMC, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, the DaimlerChyrsler Corporation and General Motors Corporation as an "expert witness" in a case where the auto manufacturers and dealers were suing George Crombie, the Secretary of the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources and others in a bid to prevent the state regulating greenhouse gases. In the process of the discovery of documents and during his deposition Michaels provided details of "New Hope's funding sources and the amount of their funding." However, this information was not publicly available but treated as confidential information. However, in late 2006 Greenpeace filed a motion seeking access to details of the funders of Michaels firm.

In an affidavit Michaels stated that "as the case moved closer to trial, I learned in conversations with plaintiff's counsel that New Hope's confidential information might not remain confidential if I testified at trial. Consequently, on or around April 7, 2007, I informed plaintiffs counsel that I would not testify at trial. My sole reason in doing so was concern that my trial testimony would result in the loss of confidentiality for the New Hope information."

Michaels affidavit stated that "large companies are understandably adverse to negative publicity. Thus, the global warming controversy has created an environment in which companies who wish to support New Hope's research and advocacy about global warming science are increasingly willing to do so only if their support remains confidential."

Michaels complained that "public disclosure of a company's funding of New Hope and its employees has already caused considerable financial loss to New Hope. For example, in 2006 Tri-State Generation & Transmission Association, Inc., an electric utility, had requested that its support of $50,000 to New Hope be held confidential. After this support was inadvertently made public by another New Hope client, Tri-State informed me that it would no longer support New Hope because of adverse publicity. Also, in 2006, when a $100,000 contract between New Hope and electric utility Intermountain Rural Electric Association to synthesize and research new findings on global warming became public knowledge, a public campaign was initiated to change the composition of the board of directors so that there would be no additional funding. That campaign was successful, as Intermountain has not provided further funding."

Michaels argued that the Greenpeace motion seeking disclosure should be rejected as it would "result in New Hope losing clients. I am doubtful that New Hope will continue to stay in business as an effective consultancy ... This is precisely why I did not testify at trial. Although this resulted in a short-term loss of income to me, it assured the long-term viability of New Hope. Besides modest speaking fees, New Hope is my sole source of income beyond a negotiated retirement package from the University of Virginia. Thus, the Greenpeace motion, if granted, would imnperil my livelihood. Hew Hope also employs the services of other scientists who receive all or a substantial part of their incomes from New Hope. Their livelihoods are also threatened by the Greenpeace motion." (On its website, New Hope Environmental Services does not list its staff. However, the World Climate Report blog lists its staff, as of May 2009 on a webpage dated March 2005, as comprising Michaels, Robert C. Balling, Jr., Robert E. Davis and Paul C. Knappenberger.)

In Michaels place, the auto industry groups hired John R. Christy as their expert witness.

Controversy over Michaels Use of "State Climatologist for Virginia" Title

While Michaels referred to himself as the State Climatologist for Virginia, in August 2006 the Governor, Timothy M. Kaine, clarified that the appointment was one by the University for its accredited climatology office but not an appointment by the state administration. "The Code of Virginia does not provide for the governor to appoint a state climatologist. My office has been unable to find evidence that any governor since 1980 has made such an appointment," Hanley wrote. While Michales had been appointed to the position in 1980 by the then Governor John Dalton, in 2000 the American Association of State Climatologists assumed responsibility for certifying climatologists. "Therefore, it is the prerogative of the university to make that appointment," Hanley wrote.

When Michaels left the university in September 2007, UVa professor James N. Galloway explained that Michaels' "utility industry funding, private research and controversial views on global warming made him a lightning rod on climate change issues," and "left the [climatologist's] office too politicized."

Michaels on climate change

Between December 1998 and September 2001 he was listed as a "Scientific Advisor" to the Greening Earth Society, a group that was funded and controlled by the Western Fuels Association (WFA), an association of coal-burning utility companies. WFA founded the group in 1997, according to an archived version of its website, "as a vehicle for advocacy on climate change, the environmental impact of CO2, and fossil fuel use."

Michaels "co-operated with Ross McKitrick on another paper that managed to "prove" that global warming wasn't happening by mixing up degrees with radians]."

In August 2004, Michaels told Business Week "We know how much the planet is going to warm. It is a small amount, and we can't do anything about it."

But Peter Gleick, a conservation analyst and president of the Oakland-based Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security, said "Pat Michaels is not one of the nation's leading researchers on climate change. On the contrary, he is one of a very small minority of nay-sayers who continue to dispute the facts and science about climate change in the face of compelling, overwhelming, and growing evidence." Michaels responded by threatening to sue. (Michaels had gotten another scientist to withdraw similar remarks.) But Gleick stood by his statement and others have joined him.

Dr. John Holdren of Harvard University told the U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee, "Michaels is another of the handful of US climate-change contrarians... He has published little if anything of distinction in the professional literature, being noted rather for his shrill op-ed pieces and indiscriminate denunciations of virtually every finding of mainstream climate science."

Dr. Tom Wigley, lead author of parts of the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and one of the world's leading climate scientists, was quoted by Ross Gelbspan as stating that "Michaels' statements on [the subject of computer models] are a catalog of misrepresentation and misinterpretation… Many of the supposedly factual statements made in Michaels' testimony are either inaccurate or are seriously misleading."

And an article in the journal Social Epistemology concluded "...the observations upon which PM [Patrick Michaels] draws his case are not good enough to bear the weight of the argument he wishes to make."

In March 2009, Michaels, under the auspices of the Cato Institute, circulated a draft advertisement that stated: "Surface temperature changes over the past century have been episodic and modest and there has been no net global warming for over a decade now ... The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior." The ad statements were analyzed and criticized in detail at the RealClimate blog.

In support of the statements, Chip Knappenberger of World Climate Report referred readers to recent testimony by Michaels to the House of Representatives Energy and Environment sub-committee That too was responded to at length by Gavin Schmidt of RealClimate.org.

Skeptics Group Discounts Some Skeptics Arguments

An internal 1995 document (pdf) of the Global Climate Coalition (GCC) -- an industry front group that disbanded in 2002 -- reviewed some of the "contrarian" arguments used by Patrick Michaels, Robert Jastrow, Richard Lindzen and other climate change skeptics. The document, which was obtained as part of a court action against the automobile industry concluded that of the arguments reviewed:

"The contrarian theories raise interesting questions about our total understanding of climate processes, but they do not offer convincing arguments against the conventional model of greenhouse gas emission-induced climate change. Jastrow's hypothesis about the role of solar variability and Michaels' questions about the temperature record are not convincing arguments against any conclusion that we are currently experiencing warming as the result of greenhouse gas emissions. However, neither solar variability nor anomalies in the temperature record offer a mechanism for off-setting the much larger rise in temperature which might occur if the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases were to double or quadruple."

"Lindzen' s hypothesis that any warming would create more rain which would cool and dry the uper troposphere did offer a mechanism for balancing the effect of increased greenhouse gases. However, the data supporting this hypothesis is weak, and even Lindzen has stopped presenting it as an alternative to the conventional model of climate change."

Affiliations

• The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition, "supporter", 1993;
• Lecturer, European Academy of Ecology, Germany, 1993.
• Lecturer, World Coal Conference, New Orleans, LA, 1993.
• Advisory Board, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow
• Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, 1976-1979; Research and Project Assistant;
• Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia (Assistant Professor, l980-1986; Associate Professor, 1986-1995; Professor, 1996 -2007);
• Virginia State Climatologist 1980- 2007;
• Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies, Cato Institute, 1992 - Present
• Visiting Scientist, Marshall Institute, 1996 - 2007 (at least).

Books

• Patrick J. Michaels, Sound and Fury: The Science and Politics of Global Warming, Cato Institute, October 1992. ISBN 0932790895
• Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. Knappenberger, The Satanic Gases, Cato Institute, May 15, 2000. ISBN 1882577922
• Patrick J. Michaels, Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media, Cato Institute, October 25, 2005. ISBN 1930865791
• Patrick J. Michaels, Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming, Rowman & Littlefield, December 28, 2005. ISBN 0742549232
• Patrick J. Michaels, Climate of Extremes: Global Warming Science They Don't Want You to Know, Cato Institute, January 25, 2009. ISBN 1933995238

Related SourceWatch Articles

• Climate change sceptics
• New Hope Environmental Services

Biographical notes & profiles

• "Patrick Michaels CV Plain Text File-Climate Change Guide/Skeptics and Contrarians", Society of Environmental Journalists, accessed May 2009.
• "Patrick J. Michaels: Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies", Cato Institute, accessed March 2009
• University. of Virginia bio, archived from November 2007.
• "Scientific advisors", Greening Earth Society website, archived from April 2000
• "Editors and Contributors", CO2andclimate.org, archived from April 2005.
• "Patrick Michaels", Wikipedia

Articles and Papers by Michaels

• Patrick J. Michaels, "Give Industry a Bigger Role (Title incomplete", Roanoke Times, December 29, 1992.
• Patrick Michaels, "Ozone Blamed for Lack of Warming", World Climate Report, New Hope Environmental Services, Volume 1, Number 12, February 1, 1996.
• Patrick J. Michaels and R.C. Balling, Jr. 1999. Global warming: The political science of exaggeration. Prometheus 1, 63-70.
• J.E. Hansen and Patrick J. Michaels. 2000. AARST Science Policy Forum, New York. Social Epistemology 14:133-186.
• R.E. Balling, M.C. MacCracken, Patrick J. Michaels, and A. Robock. 2000. Assessment of uncertainties of predicted global change modelling. Technology 7S:231-257.
• R.E. Davis, Patrick J. Michaels, and B.P. Hayden. 2000. Assessment of uncertainties of predicted global change modelling. Pages 401-426 in R. Pielke, Jr. and R. Pielke, Sr., eds., Storms, Volume I. Routledge, New York, New York.
• Patrick J. Michaels, P.C. Knappenberger, and R.E. Davis, "The way of warming", Regulation, Cato Institute, January 1, 2000, Volume 33, pages 10-16.
• Patrick J. Michaels, "The Environmentalists of Summer ", Environment & Climate News, Heartland Institute, June 2000.
• Patrick J. Michaels, "An October Environmental Surprise?", Cato Institute, September 29, 2000.
• Patrick J. Michaels, P.C. Knappenberger, R.C. Balling, Jr., and R.E. Davis. 2000. Observed warming in cold anticyclones. Climate Research 14:1-6.
• Patrick J. Michaels, and P.C. Knappenberger, "Natural signals in the MSU lower tropospheric temperature record", Geophysical Research Letters, August 2, 2000, Volume 27, pages 2905-2908.
• Patrick J. Michaels, "Global warming: Watson indulges in scare tactics . . . again", Environment & Climate News, Heartland Institute, March 2001.
• P.C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels and R.E. Davis, "The Nature of Observed Temperature Changes Across the United States During the 20th Century", Climate Research, July 2001, Volume 17, pages 45-53.
• J.D. Hux, P.C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, and P.J. Stenger, "Development of a discriminant analysis mixed precipitation (DAMP) forecast model for mid-Atlantic winter storms", Weather and Forecasting, Number 16, 2001, pages 248-259.
• Patrick J. Michaels, "National Geographic melting down?, Washington Times, September 6, 2004.
• Patrick J. Micheals, "Climate scientists blow hot and cold: Antarctic warming isn't evidence of climate change – despite what scientists would have us believe", Guardian, February 12, 2009.
• Patrick J. Michaels, "EPA’s Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking", Presentation to the Heartland Institute's International Conference on Climate Change (2009), March 9, 2009. (PowerPoint)
• Patrick Michaels, "Comments on Criticism of Cato Ad", Cato@Liberty (blog), April 5, 2009.
• Patrick J. Michaels How to Manufacture a Climate Consensus, Wall Street Journal, December 17, 2009.

Testimony by Michaels

• Patrick J. Michaels, Testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Energy and Power. U. S. Government Printing Office, 1989, Serial No. 010-31, pages 78-86.
• Patrick J. Michaels, Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate. U.S. Government Printing Office. S. Hrg 101-184, 1989, pp 254-262.
• Patrick J. Michaels, Testimony to the Foreign Affairs Committee, U.S. House of Representatives, 1993.
• Patrick J. Michaels, "Testimony of Patrick Michaels, Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies, Cato Institute", House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Environment Climate Crisis: National Security, Economic, and Public Health Threats, February 12, 2009.
• Patrick J. Michaels, Testimony to the Subcommittee on International Economic Policy, Export and Trade Promotion, of the Foreign Relations Committee, United States Senate, June 97.
• Patrick J. Michaels, Testimony to the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, November 1997.

General articles

• "Factsheet:Patrick J. Michaels", ExxonSecrets, accessed January 2005.
• Ross Gelbspan, "The heat is on: The warming of the world's climate sparks a blaze of denial", Harpers Magazine, December 1995.
• Simon Shackley, Commentary on the debate between James Hansen and Patrick Michaels, November 1998 Social Epistemology, 2000, Vol. 14. Nos. 2/3, 181-186.
• Kate O'Beirne, Interview with Pat Michaels, "Capital Gang", CNN, August 19, 2002.
• Seth Slabaugh, Global warming speaker under fire, The Star Press, November 18, 2003.
• Gabriel Wildau, Pat Michaels: scientist, energy industry lackey, Washington Post contributor, Media Matters for America, May 20, 2004.
• Tim Lambert, Global warming distortions by Singer and Michaels, Deltoid (weblog), August 17, 2004.
• John Carey, "Global Warming", Business Week, August 16, 2004.
• Joel Achenbach, "The Tempest: As evidence mounts that humans are causing dangerous changes in Earth's climate, a handful of skeptics are providing some serious blowback", The Washington Post Magazine, May 28, 2006.
• Stanley Lewandowski Jr. "Memo Intermountain Rural Electric Association memo", July 17, 2006. (This leaked memo describes IMEA's funding Michaels to the tune of $100,000 in February 2006.) (1MB PDF)
• Clayton Sandell and Bill Blakemore, "Making Money by Feeding Confusion Over Global Warming: Electric Utility Pays $100,000 to Global Warming Naysayer", ABC News, July 27, 2006.
• Science, Climate Change, and Censorship: The Pacific Institute, Patrick Michaels, and the science of climate change", Pacific Institute, undated, accessed July 2006.
• Aaron Kessler, "State: Climatologist appointed by university: Michaels no longer Virginia official", Daily Progress (Charlottesville, Virginia), August 19, 2006.
• "Pat Michaels, Virginia “State Climatologist”? A critical perspective on the issues", ClimateScienceWatch, October 01, 2006.
• "Pat Michaels", Logical Science, undated, accessed October 2006.
• Bob Gibson, "UVa hands off duties of climatologist," The Daily Progress (Charlottesville, VA), September 27, 2007.
• Robert McClure, "Leading climate-change skeptic won't reveal sources of funding", "Dateline Earth" (Blog), Seattle Post-Intelligencer, September 19, 2007.