COP15

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Summary
The Kyoto Protocol, which was negotiated in 1997, specified greenhouse gas emission targets for the developed Annex I countries. It also specified that the first "commitment period" would run from 2008 to 2012. With the agreement set to expire at the end of 2012, it is intended that the COP15 meeting, to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, will finalize a new agreement.

COP15 is the fifteenth 'Conference of the Parties' (thus, COP) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The conference began on December 7 and will run through to December 18, 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark. The COP is the highest body of the UNFCCC and consists of environment ministers who meet once a year to discuss the convention’s developments. "It is expected that ministers and officials from 189 countries will take part." At least 10,000 people, including from countries with observer status, industry groups and non-government organizations are expected to attend the conference.

The official Denmark website states that the "the goals of the climate change convention are to stabilize the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous man-made climate changes. This stabilization must occur in such a way as to give the ecosystems the opportunity to adapt naturally. This means that food safety must not be compromised, and that the potential to create sustainable social and economic development must not be endangered."

Contents

• Negotiating Texts
• Prospects for a Post-Kyoto Agreement
• Issues Under Discussion at COP15
• Main Negotiating Groups Involved Directly in the Negotiations
• Denmark's Official Website for Cop15
• Daily Bulletins Published During the Meeting
• Official COP15 Media Feeds
• Articles and Resources
  • Sources
  • SourceWatch Resources on COP15
  • SourceWatch Resources on Climate Change Issues
    • Portal:Climate Change
  • Host Country Denmark as a Model for Climate Progress
  • Resources
• External links

Negotiating Texts

Early in the first week of the Copenhagen conference a a draft of the Copenhagen Agreement was leaked to the Guardian. The draft climate change agreement, which has also been referred to as the "Danish text", had been developed by the "Circle of Commitment" comprising representatives from the governments of the UK, US, Denmark and Australia. The sweeping nature of the proposed changes provoked outcry from many developing country delegations.

A few days later preliminary draft texts were released by the two main sub-groups of the COP15 Conference. These are:

• Chair’s Proposed Draft Text on the Outcome of the Work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA) (Pdf)

• draft text of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) (Pdf)

Prospects for a Post-Kyoto Agreement

It is widely agreed that there is little prospect of reaching final agreement on a post-Kyoto agreement at the COP15 meeting. Central to the prospects of reaching an agreement is whether the developed Annex I countries, which have emitted the bulk of the human-induced carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere, agree to deep binding cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Amongst the Annex I countries, the European Union has displayed more willingness to take action, while the Umbrella Group countries -- including the United States, Canada and Australia -- have traditionally played more of a spoiling role. The United States in particular have refused to make binding commitments unless major developing economies, such as China, are included in an agreement. Developing countries - most actively represented by the G-77 block -- have indicated a willingness to cut emissions from the 'business as usual' scenario, but only if developed countries take a leadership role.

Early action by developed countries alone will not be enough to prevent dangerous climate change. However, central to the ability to win support from developing countries will be the financing of low-carbon emission technologies that allow low income countries to develop, compensation for developing countries that reduce deforestation, and funding for adaptation measures for those developing countries most at risk from rising sea levels and extreme weather events.

While negotiations had initially been slowed by the refusal of the United States during the term of the George W. Bush administration to engage constructively in the negotiations, major stumbling blocks have remained after the inauguration of President Barack Obama. During the election campaign, Obama pledged to "re-engage with the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) -- the main international forum dedicated to addressing the climate problem." (See Barack Obama statements on a post-Kyoto global warming agreement.

After his inauguration in January 2009, Obama has supported new domestic and international initiatives to address global warming. U.S. Congress passed the Waxman-Markey Climate Bill. However, to gain sufficient support the bill was heavily watered down to accommodate fossil fuel interests and major industry sectors. The bill, will not be debated by the U.S. Senate until 2010, where it will most likely be further watered down. Obama's climate negotiators have signaled that the content of the bill will influence their negotiating position on key issues in a post-Kyoto agreement. A crucial consideration is that ratification of an internationally binding treaty from the COP15 or subsequent meetings would require support from tho-thirds of the members of the U.S. Senate. Obama also initiated the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate as a parallel vehicle for negotiations on global warming amongst the major carbon emitters.

At the conclusion of pre-COP 15 negotiations in Barcelona in early November 2009, Yvo de Boer expressed pessimism about how far COP15 talks would get. "I don’t think we can get a legally binding agreement by Copenhagen," he told Bloomberg Television. "I think that we can get that within a year after Copenhagen."

The pessimism was reinforced when Mike Froman, Barack Obama's deputy national security adviser told reporters at the conclusion of the APEC Economic Leaders summit in Singapore that "there was an assessment by the leaders that it was unrealistic to expect a full internationally legally binding agreement to be negotiated between now and when Copenhagen starts in 22 days." (see Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation and global warming for more details).

A few days later, Froman stated that at the APEC meeting Obama had spoken in support of a proposal by Denmark's Prime Minister to resolve what was possible at COP15 and extend negotiations into 2010 of the outstanding details. Froman said that "there was a widespread consensus among the leaders there that the aim should not be a partial accord or just a political declaration, but an accord that covers all the main areas of the negotiations and had immediate operational effect, even as negotiations towards a legal agreement continue."

The week before COP15 opened, Yvo de Boer told Radio Australia that "I think we can get a clear agreement in Copenhagen and an agreement that specifies 2020 emission reduction targets for rich nations and an agreement that specifies what major developing countries like China will do to limit the growth of their emissions," he said. "[We can get] an agreement that specifies financial support to developing countries and an agreement that specifies that some time in the course of 2010, I hope by June 2010, this all needs to be put into treaty language so you get the legally binding package as well."

Issues Under Discussion at COP15

Key issues which will be under discussion in the lead up to and at COP15 will include:

• the baseline year that specified reduction targets will be measured against and the duration of the second commitment period; (See Post-Kyoto Protocol base year for measuring greenhouse gas emission cuts against for further background information).
• the proposed greenhouse gas reduction targets for both the second commitment period and beyond; (See Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for further background information).
• whether the agreement will be expanded to include greenhouse gases that are currently excluded from the Kyoto Protocol; (see Greenhouse gases omitted from the Kyoto Protocol);
• whether a new agreement will be expanded to include Greenhouse gas emissions from the international maritime industry and Greenhouse gas emissions from the international aviation industry, both of which are currently omitted from the Kyoto Protocol;
• whether the rules governing the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) will be tightened to ensure the environmental integrity and avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions or whether they will be relaxed;
• whether the current exclusion of nuclear power from the CDM will be maintained or overturned. See Clean Development Mechanism and Nuclear Power;
• whether the CDM will include the as yet unproved Carbon Capture and Storage technology being promoted as a way of allowing coal-fired power stations to continue operating and new ones to be built. See Clean Development Mechanism and Carbon Capture and Storage; and
• whether the agreement will include measures to curb the rate of deforestation, especially of tropical rainforests in developing countries. See Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation.

Main Negotiating Groups Involved Directly in the Negotiations

The main groups of UNFCCC signatory nations involved in the formal negotiations are:

• the African Group; see African Group and climate change negotiations for further details on their role in the post Kyoto negotiations;
• the Alliance of Small Island States; see Alliance of Small Island States and climate change negotiations for further details on their role in the post Kyoto negotiations;
• the Coalition of Rainforest Nations;
• the Environmental Integrity Group
• the European Union;
• the G-77; see G-77 and climate change negotiations for further details on their role in the post Kyoto negotiations; while not a formal member of the G-77, China is closely aligned with it - see G-77/China for background on the relationship between the two; See G-77 and climate change negotiations for further details).
• the Least Developed Countries; and
• the Umbrella Group, includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Iceland, Japan, Norway, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the United States.

Denmark's Official Website for Cop15

• http://www.cop15.dk/en/

Daily Bulletins Published During the Meeting

• Climate Action Network, | ECO-Daily NGO Newsletter. During COP conferences the Climate Action Network publishes this daily bulletin on the day's events from the perspective of the major environmental nongovernmental organizations working on global warming. They also have a blog feed and a Twitter feed.
• Earth Negotiations Bulletin. The Canadian-based IISD publishes this daily bulletin at the negotiating meetings, as well as discussion papers on key post-Kyoto treaty options. They also have a Twitter feed.
• Third World Network, The Third World Network publishes one or summary bulletins during negotiating sessions as well as background papers.

Official COP15 Media Feeds

• UNFCCC Webcast http://cop15.meta-fusion.com
• United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 News http://twitter.com/cop15
• UNFCCC COP15Liveagenda http://twitter.com/COP15Liveagenda
• UNFCCC Climate Thinkers Blog - http://en.cop15.dk/blogs/climate+thinkers+blog
• UNFCCC Behind the Scenes Blog - http://en.cop15.dk/blogs/behind+the+scenes

Articles and Resources

Sources

SourceWatch Resources on COP15

• Accra Climate Change Talks 2008
• Bonn Climate Change Talks - March 2009
• Bonn Climate Change Talks - June 2009
• Bonn Climate Change Talks - August 2009
• Bangkok Climate Change Talks - September/October 2009
• Barcelona Climate Change Talks - November 2009
• Copenhagen Climate Council
• Hill & Knowlton
• World Business Summit on Climate Change
• Environmental and Development NGOs Attending Climate Change Negotiations

SourceWatch Resources on Climate Change Issues

Portal:Climate Change

• Citizens Call to Action to Stop Global Warming and Climate Change
• Climate change
• Climate change: Resources
• Climate impacts of coal plants
• Coal moratorium
• COP14
• COP16
• COP17
• Global warming
• Global warming skeptics
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC
• Kyoto Protocol
• PEW Center on Global Climate Change

Host Country Denmark as a Model for Climate Progress

• Thomas L. Friedman, Flush With Energy, New York Times, August 9, 2008.

Resources

• National Country submissions on proposed negotiating text: http://unfccc.int/meetings/ad_hoc_working_groups/lca/items/4578.php

External links

• Gerard Wynn and Alister Doyle, "Risks Mount for Global Warming Fight - UN", Reuters, October 7, 2008.
• "Danish PM says 5 elements needed for new global climate change agreement", www.chinaview.cn, October 24, 2008.
• Hill & Knowlton, "Hill & Knowlton Selected as Official Media Sponsor for United Nations Climate Change Conference", Media Release, October 30, 2009.