J. Scott Armstrong

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J. Scott Armstrong is a marketing professor at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He is a self-proclaimed "pioneer" of forecasting methods, as well as an avid climate change skeptic. [1] Armstrong is a speaker at the International Conference on Climate Change (2009), organized by the Heartland Institute think tank. [2]

According to his CV, Armstrong's educational background is primarily in marketing, with bachelors degrees from Lehigh University in "industrial engineering" in 1960 and "applied science" in 1959. [3]

Forecasting methods

Armstrong is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is also a co-developer of new methods of forecasting including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, and structured analogies. Most of his forecasting deals with business or political trends. [1]

The scientific writers of RealClimate have critiqued Armstrong's application of his forecasting methods to climate change. They point out that his critique was based on reading "none of the primary literature," just one chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report and "an un-peer reviewed hatchet job on the Stern report," an influential 2006 report conducted for the British government. Armstrong and his co-author, Kesten Green, "appear to have talked to none" of the climate researchers or modeling groups, RealClimate added. [4]

Articles and resources

Related SourceWatch articles


  1. 1.0 1.1 "J. Scott Armstrong", J. Scott Armstrong's University of Pennsylvania website, accessed February 2009.
  2. "Speakers," Heartland Institute website, accessed January 2009.
  3. "J. Scott Armstrong CV," J. Scott Armstrong's University of Pennsylvania website, accessed March 2009.
  4. Gavin Schmidt, "Green and Armstrong’s scientific forecast", RealClimate Blog, July 2007.

External resources

Articles and Presentations by Armstrong

External articles

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