Civil war in Iraq

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In the war in Iraq, the "worst-case scenario has always been a full-blown civil war between its former Sunni ruling class and the long-oppressed Shiite majority with U.S. forces caught in the middle" and the "new worst-case scenario has Iran or Syria getting directly involved as the body counts rise. Iraqi security forces are obviously incapable of keeping the peace. Americans can't leave but don't have the numbers to impose martial law on the entire country and, in the process, expose themselves to greater risk." [1]

New "outbursts of violence" in a "series of suicide attacks, car bombs and mortar barrages rocked Baghdad" February 28, 2006, killing "more than 75 people" and wounding many. Two explosions on March 1, 2006, left another 26 dead and 65 wounded, as Iraq "teetered on the brink of sectarian civil war." [2][3][4]

"The past six days of violence that have convulsed Iraq since the bombing of the al-Askariya shrine" on February 22, 2005, "could be much worse than Iraqi and Coalition officials have admitted," Chris Allbritton wrote in TIME. The Washington Post reported February 28, 2006, "that more than 1,300 bodies had been delivered to the Baghdad morgue, directly challenging the Iraqi government’s assertion that 216 people had been killed around the country since the Wednesday bombing of the al-Askariya shrine in Samarra.

"Hundreds of bodies were packed into the morgue, the paper reported, and wailing relatives clustered around the doorway hoping to claim the body of a loved one," Allbritton wrote.

"The fresh violence could re-ignite the hostility between Sunnis and Shiites just as Iraqis struggle to recover from the worst sectarian bloodletting since the war began," New York Times' Edward Wong reported. "Though politicians and clerics have been calling for calm, and a weekend curfew cooled off the fury in the streets, people across the capital remained anxious over the possibility of new violence."

President George W. Bush, following his remarks welcoming Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi to the White House on February 28, 2006, when asked whether he feared "an all-out civil war," responded: "Obviously, there are some who are trying to sow the seeds of sectarian violence. They destroy in order to create chaos. And now the people of Iraq and their leaders must make a choice. The choice is chaos or unity."

Background

According to Spengler in the January 21, 2004 edition of the Asia Times, civil war in Iraq may be preferable, as well as advantageous, to the United States. After all, it asked, "which is better, to have Iraqis shooting at American soldiers, or at each other?"

"No one in the Bush administration wants to let slip the dogs of civil war. On the contrary, the White House still hopes that Iraq will set a precedent for democracy in the Muslim world. Yet civil war is the path of least resistance, so clearly so that the punditry of the world press has raised the alarm with one voice. A Google news search turns up 900 hits for the search terms 'Iraq' and 'civil war'. What is so bad about a civil war? No self-respecting state ever has been formed without one. All the European countries had at least one (some of them called religious wars). America has had two. The Middle East and Africa have them all the time. States are founded on compromise. Civil war is just nature's way of telling the diehards to slow down."

In the end, the real answer is this: "Americans are accustomed to happy endings. President George W. Bush wants to be remembered as the benefactor of the Muslim world, not as a second Genghis Khan. Only in the paranoid imaginings of the Muslim world has Washington set out to destabilize the region. ... Nonetheless, the tragedy will proceed as Washington at each step discovers that its only viable option is the one that pushes Iraq closer to dissolution."

Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay wrote January 22, 2004, for Knight Ridder that "current and former U.S. officials ... are warning that the country may be on a path to civil war." This "starkly" contradicts, they said, "the upbeat assessment that President Bush gave in his State of the Union address."

"The warning echoed growing fears that Iraq's Shiite majority, which has until now grudgingly accepted the U.S. occupation, could turn to violence if its demands for direct elections are spurned. ... Meanwhile, Iraq's Kurdish minority is pressing its demand for autonomy and shares of oil revenue.

"'Both the Shiites and the Kurds think that now's their time,' said one intelligence officer. 'They think that if they don't get what they want now, they'll probably never get it. Both of them feel they've been betrayed by the United States before.'"

"Another senior official said the concerns over a possible civil war weren't confined to the CIA but are 'broadly held within the government,' including by regional experts at the State Department and National Security Council.

"Top officials are scrambling to save the U.S. exit strategy after concluding that Iraq's most powerful Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al Husseini al Sistani, is unlikely to drop his demand for elections for an interim assembly that would choose an interim government by June 30. ... L. Paul Bremer would then hand over power to the interim government."

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