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Climategate

1,596 bytes added, 18:52, 15 March 2011
SW: →‎E-mails concerning scientific data: added Jones explanation of Hide the Decline
Other e-mails expressed frustration with particular scientific data:
*One e-mail that skeptics have been citing often since the messages were posted online is from Phil Jones: "I've just completed Mike's [Mann] '''trick ''' of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years [from 1981 onward] and from 1961 for Keith's to '''hide the decline'''." Jones was referring to tree ring data that indicated temperatures after the 1950s weren't as warm as scientists had determined.<ref name="ap"/> . (re "hide the decline", Phil Jones has explained that "The (World Meteorological) Organisation wanted a relatively simple diagram for their particular audience. What we started off doing was the three series with the instrumental temperatures on the end, clearly differentiated from the tree ring series, but they thought that was too complicated to explain to their audience. So, so what we did was just to add them on and bring them up to the present. And, as I say, this was a World Meteorological Organisation statement. It had hardly any coverage in the media at the time, and had virtually no coverage for the next ten years, until the release of the emails." <ref>{{cite web|publisher=RealClimate|title=Comment on Unforced variations: Mar 2011|url=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/03/unforced-variations-mar-2011/comment-page-4/#comment-203305|accessdate=2011-03-15|author=J Bowers|date=2011-03-15|quote=transcript...Phil Jones — The [World Meteorological] organisation wanted a relatively simple diagram for their particular audience. What we started off doing was the three series with the instrumental temperatures on the end, clearly differentiated from the tree ring series, but they thought that was too complicated to explain to their audience. So, so what we did was just to add them on and bring them up to the present. And, as I say, this was a World Meteorological Organisation statement. It had hardly any coverage in the media at the time, and had virtually no coverage for the next ten years, until the release of the emails.}}</ref>) The "trick" that Jones said he was borrowing from Mann was to add the real temperatures, not what the tree rings showed. And the decline he talked of hiding was not in real temperatures, but in the tree ring data that was misleading.<ref name="ap"/> Before the incident, continuing research had already presented reconstructions based on more proxies, and found similar results with or without the tree ring records. <ref>Mann, M.; Zhang, Z.; Hughes, M.; Bradley, R.; Miller, S.; Rutherford, S.; Ni, F. (2008) [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2527990/?tool=pmcentrez "Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia."] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105 (36): 13252–13257</ref>
*Another e-mail expressed frustration about inconsistent figures in the work for a big international report. David Rind told colleagues: "As this continuing exchange has clarified, what's in Chapter 6 is inconsistent with what is in Chapter 2 (and Chapter 9 is caught in the middle!). Worse yet, we've managed to make global warming go away! (Maybe it really is that easy...:)." The AP investigation found that the inconsistent figures for the one report does not undercut the scientific consensus on climate change.<ref name="ap"/>
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