Changes

It is by no means certain widely agreed that there is little prospect of reaching final agreement on a post-Kyoto agreement will be reached at the COP15 meeting. Central to the prospects of reaching an agreement is whether the developed [[Annex I countries]], which have emitted the bulk of the human-induced carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere, agree to deep binding cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Amongst the Annex I countries, the [[European Union]] has displayed more willingness to take action, while the [[Umbrella Group]] countries -- including the United States, Canada and Australia -- have traditionally played more of a spoiling role. The United States in particular have refused to make binding commitments unless major developing economies, such as China, are included in an agreement. Developing countries - most actively represented by the [[G-77]] block -- have indicated a willingness to cut emissions from the 'business as usual' scenario, but only if developed countries take a leadership role.

A complicating factor in the preparatory While negotiations was had initially been slowed by the refusal of the United States during the term of the George W. Bush administration -- which to engage constructively in 2004 emitted a little over onethe negotiations, major stumbling blocks have remained after the inauguration of President [[Barack Obama]]. During the election campaign, Obama pledged to "re-fifth of current annual greenhouse gases engage with the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) -- the main international forum dedicated to engage constructively in addressing the negotiationsclimate problem."<ref>Obama-Biden campaign,[http://www.eiamy.doebarackobama.gov/oiafcom/1605page/ggrptcontent/ newenergy_more#emissions "Emissions of Greenhouse Gases ReportNew Energy for America"], U.S. Energy Information AdministrationObama-Biden campaign website, accessed November 28, 20072008.</ref> (See [[Barack Obama statements on a post-Kyoto global warming agreement]].

During the 2008 U.S. Presidential election campaignAfter his inauguration in January 2009, [[Barack Obama]] pledge has supported new domestic and international initiatives to "re-engage with the address global warming. U.NS. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) -- Congress passed the main international forum dedicated to addressing the climate problem." Obama and his running mate, [[Joe BidenWaxman-Markey Climate Bill]]. However, stated that they would "also create a [[Global Energy Forum]] of to gain sufficient support the world's largest emitters bill was heavily watered down to focus exclusively on global energy accommodate fossil fuel interests and environmental issuesmajor industry sectors." They also pledge to implement a domestic "[[Cap-and-trade|cap-and-trade]] program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050" with "all pollution credits to be auctionedThe bill, and proceeds will go to investments in a clean energy future, habitat protections, and rebates and other transition relief for familiesnot be debated by the U."<ref>Obama-Biden campaign,[http://myS.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy_more#emissions "New Energy for America"]Senate until 2010, Obama-Biden campaign website, accessed November 2008where it will most likely be further watered down.</ref> (See [[Barack Obama statements 's climate negotiators have signaled that the content of the bill will influence their negotiating position on key issues in a post-Kyoto global warming agreement]]. After his November 2008 election win, Obama signalled his intention to ensure a new agreement A crucial consideration is reached at Copenhagen and has pursued negotiations in parallel via the [[Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate]]. (See also [[Barack Obama statements on global warming]]). However, as Obama did not assume office until late January 2009 and doubts have been raised that there will be sufficient time to finalize ratification of an agreement unless internationally binding treaty from the pace COP15 or subsequent meetings would require support from tho-thirds of negotiations accelerates substantially.<ref>[http://tiny.cc/D08U2 "Slow going at climate talks in Accra – governments must speed up negotiations"], Global Wind Energy Council, Media Release, August 28, 2008.</ref> Already leading players in the negotiations are considering members of the prospect that no agreement is reached at COP15 or immediately afterwardsU. In September 2008 the main climate change adviser to the Australian government, Professor [[Ross Garnaut]], outlined the results of three scenarios his team had modelledS. The first was for an international agreement which aimed to limit greenhouse gas emissions to 550 parts per million, which was Garnaut's preferred optionSenate. The second scenario was what he dubbed Obama also initiated the '[[Copenhagen CompromiseMajor Economies Forum on Energy and Climate]]' in which "binding commitments to quantitative reductions in emissions only by developed and transitional economies, plus perhaps some other high-income countries" are agreed to. While stating this was as a "likely minimum outcome" from the process "over the next few years," Garnaut argued that it would at least "place developed countries parallel vehicle for negotiations on the track toward decarbonisation. By demonstrating that decarbonisation is indeed compatible with prosperity and continued growth, it would keep alive the possibility of later, comprehensive, if delayed, global action."<ref>Ross Garnaut, [http://www.garnautreport.org.au/ "Targets and trajectories: Supplementary Draft Report"], Garnaut Climate Change Review, September 2008, pages 14-15.</ref> The third scenario was what he referred to as warming amongst the 'Waiting Game' scenario in which the Copenhagen meeting "fails completely to achieve an international agreement with binding commitments at least from developed countries." In this scenario, countries would operate limited domestic emission reduction strategies but would cut off from the possibility of buying or selling emission reduction credits via an international [[emissions trading]] scheme.<ref>Ross Garnaut, [http://www.garnautreport.org.au/ "Targets and trajectories: Supplementary Draft Report"], Garnaut Climate Change Review, September 2008, pages 42major carbon emitters.</ref>

At the conclusion of the APEC Economic Leaders summit in Singapore, The pessimism was reinforced when Mike Froman, Barack Obama's deputy national security adviser told reporters at the conclusion of the APEC Economic Leaders summit in Singapore that "there was an assessment by the leaders that it was unrealistic to expect a full internationally legally binding agreement to be negotiated between now and when Copenhagen starts in 22 days."<ref>Caren Bohan and John Chalmers, [http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP281896 "Obama backs two-step plan to reach climate deal"], ''Reuters'', November 14, 2009.</ref> (see '''[[Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation and global warming]]''' for more details).