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Office of Net Assessment

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[[Category:Nuclear PR]]The [[Department of Defense]]'s '''Office of Net Assessment'''(ONA), "the [[Pentagon]]'s internal [[think tank]],"[http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m2185/7_12/78791093/p1/article.jhtml] was "created and [[Andrew Marshall]] was named its first director in 1973, and Marshall has been reappointed by every administration and Secretary of Defense since then. The accomplishments of the office are legendary. In the 1970s, it produced the analyses of U.S. and [[Soviet Union|Soviet ]] military investment that compelled the [[Carter administration]] to reverse the decline in American military spending. It produced the analysis that moved the U.S. nuclear posture away from massive retaliation and towards a strategy that would better deter Soviet nuclear aggression. It was also the office that persistently called attention to the vast overestimates of the Soviet GNP that were put out by the [[CIA]] during the [[Cold War]]. It was the first to develop the idea that the American military can be transformed by the [[Revolution in military affairs|revolution in information technology]]. Every Secretary of Defense for twenty-five years, regardless of party, has kept Andrew Marshall close to him, because Marshall spoke truth to power." --[[Gary J. Schmitt]], [[Project for the New American Century]], November 10, 1997.[http://www.newamericancentury.org/defnov1097.htm]
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"... but arguably the most important in shaping American military thinking, stimulated by a small, little-known office in the Pentagon. The Department of
[[James Carafano]], [http://richmond.indymedia.org/newswire/display/1756/index.php "Dynamics of Military Revolution, 1300-2050"], ''Richmond Independent News'', September 13, 2002.
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"In 1971, [[Richard M. Nixon]], dissatisfied with the quality of the intelligence he was receiving, ordered a comprehensive restructuring of the intelligence community. As part of the shake-up, a new 'net assessment group' was created in the [[National Security Council]], with the director reporting to [[Henry Kissinger]]. The job of the office would be to evaluate the intelligence from the various agencies about Soviet and [[China|Chinese ]] nuclear capabilities, and compile it all in one place. Marshall, having been deeply immersed in intelligence issues during his early years at [[RAND Corporation]]/Rand, had the right credentials for the job. He was appointed as the group's first director.
"In 1972, his friend and fellow researcher at Rand, [[James R. Schlesinger]], who was serving as defense secretary in the Nixon administration, arranged to have Marshall's outfit moved over to the Pentagon. Marshall has been at the Office of Net Assessments (ONA) ever since.
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"ONA had a murky brief. Marshall's job was to imagine every kind of threat the military might ever face. He has used the ONA to assist [[Team B]] in its efforts to access raw intelligence, follow Soviet military thinking closely, run war games involving novel scenarios, and teach a summer seminar at the [[Naval War College]]. His taste for daring ideas has not abated, and his knack for cultivating eloquent spokesmen to do his talking for him helped him spin a web that would overwhelm the defense establishment 30 years later."[http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/nd03/nd03husain.html]
"Such conclusions are highly dubious. China's military capabilities are modest. The country's ground-troop strength has been cut in half--to 2 million--since the seventies, and most of its soldiers field weapons that are a quarter-century old. Beijing's air force doesn't have a single long-range bomber, and according to a story in Time this past June, its entire nuclear arsenal 'packs about as much explosive power as what the U.S. stuffs into one Trident submarine.'
"Marshall has also been an enthusiastic supporter of [[Star Wars]] and related schemes. Just last year he gave secret testimony before the [[Rumsfeld Commission]], which issued a report stating that the United States could face a ballistic missile threat from countries such as [[Iraq ]] and North Korea within a very short time. Its recommendations led to legislation, signed by [[President Clinton ]] [in 1999], mandating the deployment of a multibillion-dollar ballistic missile shield 'as soon as technologically feasible.'
"Marshall's pivotal position in the military gravy train became clear in 1997, when incoming Defense Secretary [[William Sebastian Cohen]] proposed downgrading the ONA's status. A group of Congressional hawks and defense executives led by [[James G. Roche]], a former Marshall aide now at [[Northrop Grumman]], immediately mounted a fierce counterattack to protect their man. Marshall's friends in the press also weighed in, with letters and articles appearing in outlets such as the [[Washington Times]], Aviation Week, the ''[[Weekly Standard]]'' and the [[Wall Street Journal]]. 'Americans don't go to sleep at night worrying about how we'll win the next war,' [[Paul Gigot]] wrote in the Journal. 'Andy Marshall does, which is why Americans ought to worry that he's being banished to outer Siberia by a witless and bureaucratic Pentagon.' Cohen swiftly backed off and Marshall remains at his post."
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In [http://www-hoover.stanford.edu/publications/digest/022/berkowitz.html "War in the Information Age"] ([[Hoover Institution]], Spring, 2002), Bert Berkowitz writes:
"These technologies are turning over many traditional notions about how to wage war. Much of this new thinking can be traced to the Pentagon's '''Office of Net Assessment''' and its director, Andrew Marshall. Although little known to the general public, the office has often been much more influential than its obscure title suggests. It is an in-house think tank for DOD charged with looking 10 or 20 years into the future, sizing up the threats the United States will face, and analyzing how we will match them.
"In the early 1990s, Marshall began to speak about a '[[revolution in military affairs]]' (RMA). This revolution was driven mainly by the great changes that were under way in information technology. As a result of these changes, military forces would be able to have a better picture of the adversary and would be able to strike at him with precision weapons from great distance. The military would also need to become more mobile because large, stationary forces would be too vulnerable.
"Over the course of three decades, many promising majors, lieutenant commanders, and GS-13 civilians have done a tour through the Office of Net Assessment. These officers are now generals, admirals, and members of the Pentagon's Senior Executive Service and have considerable influence in drafting war plans and designing new weapons programs."
In [http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1153513,00.html "Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us"] ([[The Observer]], February 22, 2004), Mark Townsend and Paul Harris write:
"[[Climate Change|Climate change ]] over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..
A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world."
"The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser [[Andrew Marshall]], who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the past three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at transforming the American military under Defence Secretary [[Donald Rumsfeld]]."
== Related SourceWatch Resources resources ==
*[[Army After Next]]
*[[Bush administration: return to space]]
*[[Global Net Assessment]]
== External Links links ==
===[[September 11, 2001]]===
*Jason Vest, [http://www.prospect.org/print-friendly/print/V13/11/vest-j.html Why Warnings Fell on Deaf Ears], ''American Prospect'', June 17, 2002: "For the [[Bush administration]], the Cold War never ended -- so [[al Qaeda]] had to get in line behind more serious enemies. ... What did the president know and when did he know it? Following revelations that the White House had reason to suspect an imminent al-Qaeda attack last year, even The New York Times has noted that the perennial post-[[Watergate]] question seems entirely appropriate. Nor should it be put exclusively to President Bush: In most countries, the directors of the internal and external security services would have resigned by now. ... Proponents of such blinkered defense priorities -- Andrew Marshall's Office of Net Assessment at the Pentagon, the [[Rumsfeld Commission]]s on ballistic missiles and space, and [[Frank Gaffney]]'s private, [[defense contractor]]-funded [[Center for Security Policy]] come to mind -- have produced a steady stream of reports based on dubious methodology."
*[http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/5/29/162032.shtml U.S. and India Consider 'Asian NATO'], May 29, 2003: "The Office of Net Assessment, the Pentagon's key think tank, conducted its first seminar in India last year with counterparts from India's Integrated Defense Staff, the connection that led to this week's discussions on an Asian version of [[NATO]]."
[[Category:Military]][[category:national security]][[Category:Think tanks]][[Category:United States]]

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