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[[Category:Nuclear PR]]The [[Department of Defense]]'s '''Office of Net Assessment'''(ONA), "the [[Pentagon]]'s internal [[think tank]],"[http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m2185/7_12/78791093/p1/article.jhtml] was "created and [[Andrew Marshall]] was named its first director in 1973, and Marshall has been reappointed by every administration and Secretary of Defense since then. The accomplishments of the office are legionlegendary. In the 1970s, it produced the analyses of U.S. and [[Soviet Union|Soviet ]] military investment that compelled the [[Carter administration]] to reverse the decline in American military spending. It produced the analysis that moved the U.S. nuclear posture away from massive retaliation and towards a strategy that would better deter Soviet nuclear aggression. It was also the office that persistently called attention to the vast overestimates of the Soviet GNP that were put out by the [[CIA]] during the [[Cold War]]. It was the first to develop the idea that the American military can be transformed by the [[Revolution in military affairs|revolution in information technology]]. Every Secretary of Defense for twenty-five years, regardless of party, has kept Andrew Marshall close to him, because Marshall spoke truth to power." --[[Gary J. Schmitt]], [[Project for the New American Century]], November 10, 1997.[http://www.newamericancentury.org/defnov1097.htm] ------ "... but arguably the most important in shaping American military thinking, stimulated by a small, little-known office in the Pentagon. The Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment, directed by Andrew Marshall, closely analyzed the Soviet writings and built on them with its own analytical rigor. The objective of a net assessment, as perfected by Marshall's office, was to provide an even-handed look at both sides of complex military competitions, examining the long-term trends and present factors that govern the capabilities of the United States and its potential enemies. In particular, Marshall had a penchant for historical case studies which proved especially useful for highlighting the political, social, cultural, and ideological dynamics that affect military developments. Studies sponsored by his office were highly influential in shaping opinions in the defense, intelligence, and foreign policy communities." [[James Carafano]], [http://richmond.indymedia.org/newswire/display/1756/index.php "Dynamics of Military Revolution, 1300-2050"], ''Richmond Independent News'', September 13, 2002. -------- Official Title: Andrew Marshall"In 1971, Director[[Richard M. Nixon]], Office dissatisfied with the quality of the Secretary intelligence he was receiving, ordered a comprehensive restructuring of Defense / Net Assessment (OSD/NA)the intelligence community. As part of the shake-------- According up, a new 'net assessment group' was created in the [[National Security Council]], with the director reporting to [http://www[Henry Kissinger]].thenationThe job of the office would be to evaluate the intelligence from the various agencies about Soviet and [[China|Chinese]] nuclear capabilities, and compile it all in one place.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi=19991025&s=19991025silversteinside "Our Man In ONA"Marshall, having been deeply immersed in intelligence issues during his early years at [[RAND Corporation]] by Ken Silverstein/Rand, had the right credentials for the job. He was appointed as the group''The Nation'', October 7, 1999: s first director. "In 1972 , his friend and fellow researcher at Rand, [[Henry Kissinger]] hired Marshall to work at the [[National Security CouncilJames R. Schlesinger]], and he who was soon appointed head of serving as defense secretary in the PentagonNixon administration, arranged to have Marshall's newly created ONA, which was charged with rating the threat outfit moved over to national security posed by the Soviet UnionPentagon. One Marshall has been at the Office of his earliest studies proclaimed that the CIA Net Assessments (ONA) ever since.  "ONA had a murky brief. Marshall's job was seriously underestimating Soviet to imagine every kind of threat the military spending and powermight ever face. Secretary of Defense He has used the ONA to assist [[James R. SchlesingerTeam B]]] promptly used the report in its efforts to bludgeon Congress into allocating more money to counter access raw intelligence, follow Soviet military thinking closely, run war games involving novel scenarios, and teach a summer seminar at the Russian bear[[Naval War College]]. "During the [[Ronald Reagan]] years Marshall His taste for daring ideas has not abated, and his knack for cultivating eloquent spokesmen to do his talking for him helped write him spin a secret document web that called for would overwhelm the United States to have the ability to fight and win a nuclear war with Russiadefense establishment 30 years later."[http://www. 'Well ahead of most Sovietologists, Mrthebulletin. Marshall noticed weaknesses of Soviet societyorg/issues/2003/nd03/nd03husain.html] ==Staff== *Andrew W. Marshall,' reads the Journal profile. 'In 1977Director, he focused on Office of the environmental and demographic crises that were undermining the Soviet system.' Associates Secretary of his have no recollection of Marshall's ever having expressed such viewsDefense / Net Assessment (OSD/NA). The ex*[[David S. Yost]], 1984-Pentagon man says86.*[[John Milam]], strategic analyst.*[[Donald Henry]], 'Until "special assistant to the very end he was a major promoter director of net assessment in the line that 'The Russians are coming and they're 10 feet tall.' Office of Net Assessment within OSD"Late into 1989[http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2002/0520/web-ncw-05-23-after the fall of the Berlin wall and shortly before [02.asp May 2002].*[Mikhail Gorbachevhttp://web.mit.edu/polisci/research/meyer/SMMCV-MIT.pdf Stephen Michael Meyer]]'s ouster , Principal Investigator, Office of Net Assessment (Transformation and Adaptation of Civil-Military Structures in the Soviet UnionRussia) (1992 -present).*[[Andrew May]] ([http://blog.mopsos.com/archives/Schrage_wp03-Marshall was insisting that high levels of military spending were as urgently needed as ever1. 'I don't think I've ever seen so much uncertainty about the future as there is today,' he said. pdf 2003]) --------"Since the collapse of Communism, Marshall has spent much energy hunting for a suitable threat According to replace Boris the Bear[http://www. He first turned his attention to [[North Korea]thenation.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi=19991025&s=19991025silversteinside "Our Man In ONA"]by Ken Silverstein, with a 1991 ONA report concluding that in the event of war''The Nation'', October 7, Pyongyang's troops could wipe out Seoul within ten days and US forces would be unable 1999: "In 1972 [[Henry Kissinger]] hired Marshall to do much to stop them. After it became apparent that North Korea was on work at the verge of mass starvation and collapse[[National Security Council]], Marshall turned his attention to China. An ONA study from and he was soon appointed head of the mid-nineties stated that BeijingPentagon's military newly created ONA, which was modernizing so rapidly charged with rating the threat to national security posed by the Soviet Union. One of his earliest studies proclaimed that the CIA was seriously underestimating Soviet military spending and power. Secretary of Defense [[People's Liberation ArmyJames R. Schlesinger]] would soon be able promptly used the report to bludgeon Congress into allocating more money to defeat counter the United States in a regional conflict in AsiaRussian bear. A second ONA report, prepared for the agency by [ "During the] [[RAND CorporationRonald Reagan]], estimated years Marshall helped write a secret document that Beijing is spending about $140 billion called for the United States to have the ability to fight and win a year on defensenuclear war with Russia. 'Well ahead of most Sovietologists, Mr. That figure is more than twice as high as other high-end estimates and seven to eight times higher than commonly accepted low-end onesMarshall noticed weaknesses of Soviet society,' reads the Journal profile. 'In 1997 yet another ONA-sponsored study ominously concluded 1977, he focused on the environmental and demographic crises that China viewed were undermining the United States as a declining superpower and was scheming to exploit AmericaSoviet system.'s military weakness. "Such conclusions are highly dubious. ChinaAssociates of his have no recollection of Marshall's military capabilities are modestever having expressed such views. The country's groundex-troop strength has been cut in half--to 2 million--since Pentagon man says, 'Until the seventies, and most very end he was a major promoter of its soldiers field weapons the line that are a quarter-century old'The Russians are coming and they're 10 feet tall. Beijing's air force doesn't have a single long "Late into 1989--range bomber, after the fall of the Berlin wall and according to a story shortly before [[Mikhail Gorbachev]]'s ouster in Time this past June, its entire nuclear arsenal 'packs about the Soviet Union--Marshall was insisting that high levels of military spending were as much explosive power urgently needed as what the U.S. stuffs into one Trident submarineever.' I don't think I've ever seen so much uncertainty about the future as there is today,' he said.  "Since the collapse of Communism, Marshall has also been an enthusiastic supporter of spent much energy hunting for a suitable threat to replace Boris the Bear. He first turned his attention to [[Star WarsNorth Korea]] and related schemes. Just last year he gave secret testimony before , with a 1991 ONA report concluding that in the [[Rumsfeld Commission]]event of war, which issued a report stating that the United States Pyongyang's troops could face a ballistic missile threat from countries such as Iraq wipe out Seoul within ten days and US forces would be unable to do much to stop them. After it became apparent that North Korea within a very short timewas on the verge of mass starvation and collapse, Marshall turned his attention to China. Its recommendations led to legislation, signed by President Clinton [in 1999], mandating An ONA study from the deployment of a multibillion-dollar ballistic missile shield 'as soon as technologically feasible.' "Marshallmid-nineties stated that Beijing's pivotal position in military was modernizing so rapidly that the military gravy train became clear in 1997, when incoming Defense Secretary [[William Sebastian CohenPeople's Liberation Army]] proposed downgrading would soon be able to defeat the United States in a regional conflict in Asia. A second ONA's status. A group of Congressional hawks and defense executives led report, prepared for the agency by [the] [James G. Roche[RAND Corporation]], estimated that Beijing is spending about $140 billion a former Marshall aide now at [[Northrop Grumman]], immediately mounted a fierce counterattack to protect their manyear on defense. Marshall's friends in the press also weighed in, with letters and articles appearing in outlets such That figure is more than twice as high as the Washington Times, Aviation Week, the Weekly Standard other high-end estimates and the Wall Street Journalseven to eight times higher than commonly accepted low-end ones. 'Americans don't go to sleep at night worrying about how we'll win In 1997 yet another ONA-sponsored study ominously concluded that China viewed the next war,United States as a declining superpower and was scheming to exploit America' [[Paul Gigot]] wrote in the Journals military weakness. 'Andy Marshall does, which is why Americans ought to worry that he "Such conclusions are highly dubious. China's being banished to outer Siberia by a witless and bureaucratic Pentagonmilitary capabilities are modest.The country' Cohen swiftly backed off and Marshall remains at his post." s ground-troop strength has been cut in half--to 2 million--since the seventies, and most of its soldiers field weapons that are a quarter--- In [http://www-hoovercentury old.stanford.edu/publications/digest/022/berkowitz.html "War Beijing's air force doesn't have a single long-range bomber, and according to a story in the Information Age"] ([[Hoover Institution]]Time this past June, Spring, 2002), Bert Berkowitz writes: its entire nuclear arsenal 'packs about as much explosive power as what the U.S. stuffs into one Trident submarine.' "These technologies are turning over many traditional notions about how to wage war. Much Marshall has also been an enthusiastic supporter of this new thinking can be traced to [[Star Wars]] and related schemes. Just last year he gave secret testimony before the Pentagon's '''Office of Net Assessment''' and its director[[Rumsfeld Commission]], Andrew Marshall. Although little known to which issued a report stating that the general public, the office has often been much more influential than its obscure title suggestsUnited States could face a ballistic missile threat from countries such as [[Iraq]] and North Korea within a very short time. It is an Its recommendations led to legislation, signed by [[President Clinton]] [in-house think tank for DOD charged with looking 10 or 20 years into 1999], mandating the future, sizing up the threats the United States will face, and analyzing how we will match themdeployment of a multibillion-dollar ballistic missile shield 'as soon as technologically feasible. ' "In the early 1990s, Marshall began to speak about a 'revolution s pivotal position in the military affairs' (RMA)gravy train became clear in 1997, when incoming Defense Secretary [[William Sebastian Cohen]] proposed downgrading the ONA's status. This revolution was driven mainly A group of Congressional hawks and defense executives led by the great changes that were under way in information technology[[James G. As a result of these changesRoche]], military forces would be able to have a better picture of former Marshall aide now at [[Northrop Grumman]], immediately mounted a fierce counterattack to protect their man. Marshall's friends in the adversary press also weighed in, with letters and would be able to strike at him with precision weapons from great distance. The military would also need to become more mobile because largearticles appearing in outlets such as the [[Washington Times]], stationary forces would be too vulnerable. "Over the course of three decades, many promising majorsAviation Week, lieutenant commanders, and GS-13 civilians have done a tour through the Office of Net Assessment. These officers are now generals, admirals, ''[[Weekly Standard]]'' and members of the Pentagon[[Wall Street Journal]]. 'Americans don's Senior Executive Service and have considerable influence in drafting t go to sleep at night worrying about how we'll win the next war plans and designing new weapons programs,' [[Paul Gigot]] wrote in the Journal." -------- == Other SourceWatch Resources == 'Andy Marshall does, which is why Americans ought to worry that he's being banished to outer Siberia by a witless and bureaucratic Pentagon.' Cohen swiftly backed off and Marshall remains at his post."--------*In [http://www-hoover.stanford.edu/publications/digest/022/berkowitz.html "War in the Information Age"] ([Army After Next[Hoover Institution]] , Spring, 2002), Bert Berkowitz writes: *[[Bush administration/return to space]] *[[Defense After Next]] *[[nuclear weapons]] *[[revolution in military affairs]] == External Links == "These technologies are turning over many traditional notions about how to wage war. Much of this new thinking can be traced to the Pentagon's '''[[September 11, 2001]]Office of Net Assessment''' *Jason Vestand its director, [http://wwwAndrew Marshall.prospectAlthough little known to the general public, the office has often been much more influential than its obscure title suggests.org/printIt is an in-friendly/print/V13/11/vest-j.html Why Warnings Fell on Deaf Ears]house think tank for DOD charged with looking 10 or 20 years into the future, ''American Prospect''sizing up the threats the United States will face, June 17, 2002: and analyzing how we will match them. "For In the [[Bush administration]]early 1990s, the Cold War never ended -- so Marshall began to speak about a '[[al Qaedarevolution in military affairs]] had to get in line behind more serious enemies' (RMA). ... What did This revolution was driven mainly by the president know and when did he know it? Following revelations great changes that the White House had reason to suspect an imminent al-Qaeda attack last yearwere under way in information technology. As a result of these changes, even The New York Times has noted that military forces would be able to have a better picture of the perennial post-[[Watergate]] question seems entirely appropriate. Nor should it adversary and would be put exclusively able to President Bush: In most countries, the directors of the internal and external security services strike at him with precision weapons from great distance. The military would also need to become more mobile because large, stationary forces would have resigned by nowbe too vulnerable. ... Proponents  "Over the course of such blinkered defense priorities three decades, many promising majors, lieutenant commanders, and GS-- Andrew Marshall's 13 civilians have done a tour through the Office of Net Assessment at the Pentagon. These officers are now generals, the [[Rumsfeld Commission]]s on ballistic missiles and spaceadmirals, and [[Frank Gaffney]]members of the Pentagon's private, [[defense contractor]]Senior Executive Service and have considerable influence in drafting war plans and designing new weapons programs."------funded [[Center for Security Policy]] come to mind -- have produced a steady stream of reports based on dubious methodology." '''General''' *In [http://wwwobserver.guardian.fasco.orguk/nukeinternational/guidestory/china/doctrine/pills2/part130,6903,1153513,00.htm html "Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us"] ([[The Definition of Strategic AssessmentObserver]]. In particular, scroll down to the section on February 22, 2004), Mark Townsend and Paul Harris write: "Department [[Climate Change|Climate change]] over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of Defense Net Assessmentslives in wars and natural disasters.." *Knut RoyceA secret report, [http://wwwsuppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020.commondreams.org/headlines03/0110Nuclear conflict, mega-01droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.htm Plan: Tap Iraq's Oil. U.S. considers seizing revenues " "The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to pay for occupationthe edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, source says]water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents."  "'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,'Newsday'concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, January 10, 2003: warfare would define human life.'" "An The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush administration source , which has repeatedly denied that climate change even exists. Experts said that most of the proposals for the conduct of the war and implementation of plans they will also make unsettling reading for a subsequent occupation are being drafted by the PentagonPresident who has insisted national defence is a priority. Last month a respected Washington think tank prepared a classified briefing " "The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser [[Andrew Marshall]], the Pentagon's influential director of Net Assessment, who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the future role of Upast three decades.S. Special Forces in He was the global man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at transforming the American military under Defence Secretary [[war against terrorismDonald Rumsfeld]], among other issues. Part of the presentation recommended that oil funds be used to defray the costs of a military occupation in Iraq, according to a source who helped prepare the report. ... He said that the study, undertaken by the " == Related SourceWatch resources ==*[[Center Army After Next]]*[[Bush administration: return to space]]*[[Defense After Next]]*[[Institute for National Strategic and Budgetary AssessmentsStudies]], concluded that 'the cost of the occupation, the cost for the military administration and providing for a provisional *[[civiliannuclear weapons]] administration, all of that would come out of Iraqi oil.' He said the briefing was delivered to the office *[[Office of Special Plans]]*[[Paul Wolfowitzrevolution in military affairs]], the deputy secretary of Defense and one of the administration's strongest advocates *[[USAF Institute for an invasion National Security Studies]]*[[weaponization of Iraq, on Decspace]]*[[Global Net Assessment]] == External links =====[[September 11, 2001]]===*Jason Vest, [http://www. 13prospect.org/print-friendly/print/V13/11/vest-j.html Why Warnings Fell on Deaf Ears], ''American Prospect'', June 17, 2002: "For the [[Bush administration]], the Cold War never ended -- so [[al Qaeda]] had to get in line behind more serious enemies. ... What did the president know and when did he know it? Following revelations that the White House had reason to suspect an imminent al-Qaeda attack last year, even The New York Times has noted that the perennial post-[[Watergate]] question seems entirely appropriate. Nor should it be put exclusively to President Bush: In most countries, the directors of the internal and external security services would have resigned by now. ... Proponents of such blinkered defense priorities -- Andrew Marshall's Office of Net Assessment at the Pentagon, the [[Rumsfeld Commission]]s on ballistic missiles and space, and [[Frank Gaffney]]'s private, [[defense contractor]]-funded [[Center for Security Policy]] come to mind -- have produced a steady stream of reports based on dubious methodology." ===General===*[http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/pills2/part13.htm The Definition of Strategic Assessment]. In particular, scroll down to the section on "Department of Defense Net Assessments."*[http://lonecoyote.home.mindspring.com/links_gameind.html BreakAway Games]: "Developers of retail, online, and proprietary military games, including Sid Meier's Antietam, Cleopatra, and Waterloo. Their proprietary software model is in use at the [[Army War College]], [[Naval War College]], and The [[Joint Chiefs of Staff]] Office of Net Assessment." *Knut Royce, [http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0110-01.htm Plan: Tap Iraq's Oil. U.S. considers seizing revenues to pay for occupation, source says], ''Newsday'', January 10, 2003: "An administration source said that most of the proposals for the conduct of the war and implementation of plans for a subsequent occupation are being drafted by the Pentagon. Last month a respected Washington think tank prepared a classified briefing commissioned by Andrew Marshall, the Pentagon's influential director of Net Assessment, on the future role of U.S. Special Forces in the global [[war against terrorism]], among other issues. Part of the presentation recommended that oil funds be used to defray the costs of a military occupation in Iraq, according to a source who helped prepare the report. ... He said that the study, undertaken by the [[Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments]], concluded that 'the cost of the occupation, the cost for the military administration and providing for a provisional [civilian] administration, all of that would come out of Iraqi oil.' He said the briefing was delivered to the office of [[Paul Wolfowitz]], the deputy secretary of Defense and one of the administration's strongest advocates for an invasion of Iraq, on Dec. 13."*''Rosalinda'', [http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/archive.cgi?noframes%3Bread=30922 Chickenhawk Intelligence Agency is Born], ''Rumor Mill News'', April 9, 2003.*[[Seymour M. Hersh]], [http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?030512fa_fact Selective Intelligence], ''New Yorker'', May 5, 2003: "Donald Rumsfeld has his own special sources. Are they reliable?"