Changes

[[Category:Nuclear PR]]The [[Department of Defense]]'s '''Office of Net Assessment'''(ONA), "the [[Pentagon]]'s internal [[think tank]],"[http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m2185/7_12/78791093/p1/article.jhtml] was "created and [[Andrew Marshall]] was named its first director in 1973, and Marshall has been reappointed by every administration and Secretary of Defense since then. The accomplishments of the office are legionlegendary. In the 1970s, it produced the analyses of U.S. and [[Soviet Union|Soviet ]] military investment that compelled the [[Carter administration]] to reverse the decline in American military spending. It produced the analysis that moved the U.S. nuclear posture away from massive retaliation and towards a strategy that would better deter Soviet nuclear aggression. It was also the office that persistently called attention to the vast overestimates of the Soviet GNP that were put out by the [[CIA]] during the [[Cold War]]. It was the first to develop the idea that the American military can be transformed by the [[Revolution in military affairs|revolution in information technology]]. Every Secretary of Defense for twenty-five years, regardless of party, has kept Andrew Marshall close to him, because Marshall spoke truth to power." --[[Gary J. Schmitt]], [[Project for the New American Century]], November 10, 1997.[http://www.newamericancentury.org/defnov1097.htm] -------- According to [http://www".thenation.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi=19991025&s=19991025silversteinside "Our Man In ONA"] by Ken Silverstein, ''but arguably the most important in shaping American military thinking, stimulated by a small, little-known office in the Pentagon. The Nation'Department ofDefense's Office of Net Assessment, October 7directed by Andrew Marshall, 1999: "In 1972 [[Henry Kissinger]] hired Marshall to work at closely analyzed the [[National Security Council]], Soviet writings and he was soon appointed head built on them with its own analytical rigor. The objective of the Pentagona net assessment, as perfected by Marshall's newly created ONAoffice, which was charged with rating the threat to national security posed by provide an even-handed look at both sides of complex military competitions, examining the long-term trends and present factors that govern the Soviet Union. One capabilities of his earliest studies proclaimed that the CIA was seriously underestimating Soviet military spending United States and powerits potential enemies. Secretary of Defense In particular, Marshall had a penchant for historical case studies which proved especially useful for highlighting the political, social, cultural, and ideological dynamics that affect military developments. Studies sponsored by his office were highly influential in shaping opinions in the defense, intelligence, and foreign policy communities." [[James RCarafano]], [http://richmond.indymedia. Schlesinger]org/newswire/display/1756/index.php "Dynamics of Military Revolution, 1300-2050"] promptly used the report to bludgeon Congress into allocating more money to counter the Russian bear, ''Richmond Independent News'', September 13, 2002. --------"During the In 1971, [[Ronald ReaganRichard M. Nixon]] years Marshall helped write , dissatisfied with the quality of the intelligence he was receiving, ordered a secret document that called for comprehensive restructuring of the United States to have intelligence community. As part of the ability to fight and win shake-up, a nuclear war with Russia. new 'net assessment group'Well ahead of most Sovietologistswas created in the [[National Security Council]], Mrwith the director reporting to [[Henry Kissinger]]. Marshall noticed weaknesses The job of Soviet society,' reads the Journal profile. 'In 1977, he focused on office would be to evaluate the environmental and demographic crises that were undermining intelligence from the various agencies about Soviet systemand [[China|Chinese]] nuclear capabilities, and compile it all in one place.' Associates of his have no recollection of Marshall's ever , having expressed such views. The ex-Pentagon man saysbeen deeply immersed in intelligence issues during his early years at [[RAND Corporation]]/Rand, 'Until had the right credentials for the very end he job. He was a major promoter of appointed as the line that group'The Russians are coming and they're 10 feet talls first director.' "Late into 1989--after the fall of the Berlin wall In 1972, his friend and shortly before fellow researcher at Rand, [[Mikhail GorbachevJames R. Schlesinger]], who was serving as defense secretary in the Nixon administration, arranged to have Marshall's ouster in outfit moved over to the Soviet Union--Pentagon. Marshall was insisting that high levels has been at the Office of military spending were as urgently needed as Net Assessments (ONA) eversince.  "ONA had a murky brief. Marshall'I don't think I've s job was to imagine every kind of threat the military might ever seen so much uncertainty about the future as there is today,' he saidface. "Since He has used the collapse of Communism, Marshall has spent much energy hunting for a suitable threat to replace Boris the Bear. He first turned his attention to [ONA to assist [[North KoreaTeam B]]in its efforts to access raw intelligence, with follow Soviet military thinking closely, run war games involving novel scenarios, and teach a 1991 ONA report concluding that in summer seminar at the event of war[[Naval War College]]. His taste for daring ideas has not abated, Pyongyang's troops could wipe out Seoul within ten days and US forces would be unable his knack for cultivating eloquent spokesmen to do much to stop them. After it became apparent his talking for him helped him spin a web that North Korea was on would overwhelm the verge of mass starvation and collapse, Marshall turned his attention to Chinadefense establishment 30 years later. An ONA study from the mid-nineties stated that Beijing's military was modernizing so rapidly that the "[[People's Liberation Armyhttp://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/nd03/nd03husain.html]] would soon be able to defeat the United States in a regional conflict in Asia ==Staff== *Andrew W. A second ONA reportMarshall, Director, prepared for Office of the agency by [the] [Secretary of Defense / Net Assessment (OSD/NA).*[RAND Corporation[David S. Yost]], estimated that Beijing is spending about $140 billion a year on defense1984-86. That figure is more than twice as high as other high-end estimates and seven *[[John Milam]], strategic analyst.*[[Donald Henry]], "special assistant to eight times higher than commonly accepted lowthe director of net assessment in the Office of Net Assessment within OSD" [http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2002/0520/web-ncw-05-23-end ones02. In 1997 yet another ONA-sponsored study ominously concluded that China viewed the United States as a declining superpower and was scheming to exploit America's military weaknessasp May 2002]. "Such conclusions are highly dubious*[http://web. China's military capabilities are modestmit. The country's groundedu/polisci/research/meyer/SMMCV-troop strength has been cut in half--to 2 million--since the seventiesMIT.pdf Stephen Michael Meyer], Principal Investigator, Office of Net Assessment (Transformation and most Adaptation of its soldiers field weapons that are a quarterCivil-century oldMilitary Structures in Russia) (1992 - present). Beijing's air force doesn't have a single long-range bomber, and according to a story in Time this past June, its entire nuclear arsenal 'packs about as much explosive power as what the U*[[Andrew May]] ([http://blog.Smopsos. stuffs into one Trident submarinecom/archives/Schrage_wp03-1.' pdf 2003]) --------"Marshall has also been an enthusiastic supporter of According to [[Star Wars]] and related schemeshttp://www.thenation.com/doc. Just last year he gave secret testimony before the [[Rumsfeld Commission]mhtml%3Fi=19991025&s=19991025silversteinside "Our Man In ONA"]by Ken Silverstein, ''The Nation'', October 7, which issued a report stating that the United States could face a ballistic missile threat from countries such as Iraq and North Korea within a very short time. Its recommendations led to legislation, signed by President Clinton 1999: "In 1972 [[Henry Kissinger]] hired Marshall to work at the [[in 1999National Security Council]], mandating and he was soon appointed head of the deployment of a multibillion-dollar ballistic missile shield 'as soon as technologically feasible.' "Marshall'Pentagon's pivotal position in newly created ONA, which was charged with rating the military gravy train became clear in 1997, when incoming Defense Secretary [[William Sebastian Cohen]] proposed downgrading threat to national security posed by the ONA's statusSoviet Union. A group One of Congressional hawks his earliest studies proclaimed that the CIA was seriously underestimating Soviet military spending and defense executives led by power. Secretary of Defense [[James GR. RocheSchlesinger]], a former Marshall aide now at promptly used the report to bludgeon Congress into allocating more money to counter the Russian bear.  "During the [[Northrop GrummanRonald Reagan]], immediately mounted years Marshall helped write a fierce counterattack secret document that called for the United States to have the ability to protect their manfight and win a nuclear war with Russia. Marshall's friends in Well ahead of most Sovietologists, Mr. Marshall noticed weaknesses of Soviet society,' reads the press also weighed inJournal profile. 'In 1977, with letters he focused on the environmental and articles appearing in outlets such as demographic crises that were undermining the Washington Times, Aviation Week, the Weekly Standard and the Wall Street JournalSoviet system. 'Americans don't go to sleep at night worrying about how weAssociates of his have no recollection of Marshall'll win the next wars ever having expressed such views. The ex-Pentagon man says,' [[Paul Gigot]] wrote in Until the very end he was a major promoter of the Journalline that 'The Russians are coming and they're 10 feet tall. 'Andy Marshall does, which is why Americans ought to worry that he's being banished to outer Siberia by a witless and bureaucratic Pentagon. "Late into 1989--after the fall of the Berlin wall and shortly before [[Mikhail Gorbachev]]' Cohen swiftly backed off and s ouster in the Soviet Union--Marshall remains at his postwas insisting that high levels of military spending were as urgently needed as ever." -------- 'I don't think I've ever seen so much uncertainty about the future as there is today,' he said.  In [http://www-hoover"Since the collapse of Communism, Marshall has spent much energy hunting for a suitable threat to replace Boris the Bear.stanford.edu/publications/digest/022/berkowitz.html "War in the Information Age"] (He first turned his attention to [[Hoover InstitutionNorth Korea]], Springwith a 1991 ONA report concluding that in the event of war, 2002), Bert Berkowitz writes: "These technologies are turning over many traditional notions about how Pyongyang's troops could wipe out Seoul within ten days and US forces would be unable to do much to wage warstop them. Much After it became apparent that North Korea was on the verge of this new thinking can be traced to mass starvation and collapse, Marshall turned his attention to China. An ONA study from the Pentagonmid-nineties stated that Beijing's military was modernizing so rapidly that the [[People'''Office of Net Assessment''' and its director, Andrew Marshall. Although little known s Liberation Army]] would soon be able to defeat the general public, the office has often been much more influential than its obscure title suggestsUnited States in a regional conflict in Asia. It is an in-house think tank A second ONA report, prepared for DOD charged with looking 10 or 20 years into the futureagency by [the] [[RAND Corporation]], sizing up the threats the United States will face, and analyzing how we will match themestimated that Beijing is spending about $140 billion a year on defense. "In the early 1990s, Marshall began That figure is more than twice as high as other high-end estimates and seven to speak about a 'revolution in military affairs' (RMA)eight times higher than commonly accepted low-end ones. This revolution was driven mainly by In 1997 yet another ONA-sponsored study ominously concluded that China viewed the great changes that were under way in information technology. As United States as a result of these changes, declining superpower and was scheming to exploit America's military forces would be able to have a better picture of the adversary and would be able to strike at him with precision weapons from great distanceweakness.  "Such conclusions are highly dubious. China's military capabilities are modest. The military would also need to become more mobile because largecountry's ground-troop strength has been cut in half--to 2 million--since the seventies, stationary forces would be too vulnerable. "Over the course of three decades, many promising majors, lieutenant commanders, and GSand most of its soldiers field weapons that are a quarter-13 civilians have done a tour through the Office of Net Assessment. These officers are now generals, admirals, and members of the Pentagoncentury old. Beijing's Senior Executive Service and air force doesn't have considerable influence a single long-range bomber, and according to a story in drafting war plans and designing new weapons programs." -------- Time this past June, its entire nuclear arsenal 'packs about as much explosive power as what the U.S. stuffs into one Trident submarine.' == Other SourceWatch Resources == *"Marshall has also been an enthusiastic supporter of [[Bush administration/return to spaceStar Wars]] *and related schemes. Just last year he gave secret testimony before the [[nuclear weaponsRumsfeld Commission]] *, which issued a report stating that the United States could face a ballistic missile threat from countries such as [[revolution in military affairsIraq]] and North Korea within a very short time. Its recommendations led to legislation, signed by [[President Clinton]] [in 1999], mandating the deployment of a multibillion-dollar ballistic missile shield 'as soon as technologically feasible.'   == External Links == "Marshall's pivotal position in the military gravy train became clear in 1997, when incoming Defense Secretary [[William Sebastian Cohen]] proposed downgrading the ONA's status. A group of Congressional hawks and defense executives led by [[James G. Roche]], a former Marshall aide now at [[Northrop Grumman]], immediately mounted a fierce counterattack to protect their man. Marshall's friends in the press also weighed in, with letters and articles appearing in outlets such as the [[Washington Times]], Aviation Week, the ''[[Weekly Standard]]'' and the [[Wall Street Journal]]. 'Americans don't go to sleep at night worrying about how we'll win the next war,' [[Paul Gigot]] wrote in the Journal. 'Andy Marshall does, which is why Americans ought to worry that he's being banished to outer Siberia by a witless and bureaucratic Pentagon.' Cohen swiftly backed off and Marshall remains at his post."--------In [http://www-hoover.stanford.edu/publications/digest/022/berkowitz.html "War in the Information Age"] ([[Hoover Institution]], Spring, 2002), Bert Berkowitz writes:  "These technologies are turning over many traditional notions about how to wage war. Much of this new thinking can be traced to the Pentagon's '''Office of Net Assessment''' and its director, Andrew Marshall. Although little known to the general public, the office has often been much more influential than its obscure title suggests. It is an in-house think tank for DOD charged with looking 10 or 20 years into the future, sizing up the threats the United States will face, and analyzing how we will match them. "In the early 1990s, Marshall began to speak about a '[[revolution in military affairs]]' (RMA). This revolution was driven mainly by the great changes that were under way in information technology. As a result of these changes, military forces would be able to have a better picture of the adversary and would be able to strike at him with precision weapons from great distance. The military would also need to become more mobile because large, stationary forces would be too vulnerable. "Over the course of three decades, many promising majors, lieutenant commanders, and GS-13 civilians have done a tour through the Office of Net Assessment. These officers are now generals, admirals, and members of the Pentagon's Senior Executive Service and have considerable influence in drafting war plans and designing new weapons programs."--------In [http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1153513,00.html "Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us"] ([[The Observer]], February 22, 2004), Mark Townsend and Paul Harris write: "[[Climate Change|Climate change]] over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters.. A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world." "The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents."  "'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,' concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would define human life.'" "The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush administration, which has repeatedly denied that climate change even exists. Experts said that they will also make unsettling reading for a President who has insisted national defence is a priority." "The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser [[Andrew Marshall]], who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the past three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at transforming the American military under Defence Secretary [[Donald Rumsfeld]]." == Related SourceWatch resources ==*[[Army After Next]]*[[Bush administration: return to space]]*[[Defense After Next]]*[[Institute for National Strategic Studies]]*[[nuclear weapons]]*[[Office of Special Plans]]*[[revolution in military affairs]]*[[USAF Institute for National Security Studies]]*[[weaponization of space]]*[[Global Net Assessment]] == External links =====[[September 11, 2001]]===*Jason Vest, [http://www.prospect.org/print-friendly/print/V13/11/vest-j.html Why Warnings Fell on Deaf Ears], ''American Prospect'', June 17, 2002: "For the [[Bush administration]], the Cold War never ended -- so [[al Qaeda]] had to get in line behind more serious enemies. ... What did the president know and when did he know it? Following revelations that the White House had reason to suspect an imminent al-Qaeda attack last year, even The New York Times has noted that the perennial post-[[Watergate]] question seems entirely appropriate. Nor should it be put exclusively to President Bush: In most countries, the directors of the internal and external security services would have resigned by now. ... Proponents of such blinkered defense priorities -- Andrew Marshall's Office of Net Assessment at the Pentagon, the [[Rumsfeld Commission]]s on ballistic missiles and space, and [[Frank Gaffney]]'s private, [[defense contractor]]-funded [[Center for Security Policy]] come to mind -- have produced a steady stream of reports based on dubious methodology." ===General===*[http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/pills2/part13.htm The Definition of Strategic Assessment]. In particular, scroll down to the section on "Department of Defense Net Assessments."*[http://lonecoyote.home.mindspring.com/links_gameind.html BreakAway Games]: "Developers of retail, online, and proprietary military games, including Sid Meier's Antietam, Cleopatra, and Waterloo. Their proprietary software model is in use at the [[Army War College]], [[Naval War College]], and The [[Joint Chiefs of Staff]] Office of Net Assessment." *Knut Royce, [http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0110-01.htm Plan: Tap Iraq's Oil. U.S. considers seizing revenues to pay for occupation, source says], ''Newsday'', January 10, 2003: "An administration source said that most of the proposals for the conduct of the war and implementation of plans for a subsequent occupation are being drafted by the Pentagon. Last month a respected Washington think tank prepared a classified briefing commissioned by Andrew Marshall, the Pentagon's influential director of Net Assessment, on the future role of U.S. Special Forces in the global [[war against terrorism]], among other issues. Part of the presentation recommended that oil funds be used to defray the costs of a military occupation in Iraq, according to a source who helped prepare the report. ... He said that the study, undertaken by the [[Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments]], concluded that 'the cost of the occupation, the cost for the military administration and providing for a provisional [civilian] administration, all of that would come out of Iraqi oil.' He said the briefing was delivered to the office of [[Paul Wolfowitz]], the deputy secretary of Defense and one of the administration's strongest advocates for an invasion of Iraq, on Dec. 13."*''Rosalinda'', [http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/archive.cgi?noframes%3Bread=30922 Chickenhawk Intelligence Agency is Born], ''Rumor Mill News'', April 9, 2003.*[[Seymour M. Hersh]], [http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?030512fa_fact Selective Intelligence], ''New Yorker'', May 5, 2003: "Donald Rumsfeld has his own special sources. Are they reliable?"