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In the [[war in Iraq]], the "worst{{Navbar-case scenario has always been a full-blown civil war between its former Sunni ruling class and the long-oppressed Shiite majority with U.S. forces caught in the middle" and the "new worst-case scenario has [[Iran]] or [[Syria]] getting directly involved as the [[Iraq Coalition Casualty Statistics|body counts rise]]. [[Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq|Operation Iraqi security forces]] are obviously incapable of keeping the peace. Americans can't leave but don't have the numbers to impose [[martial law]] on the entire country and, in the process, expose themselves to greater risk." [http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060301/OPINION01/603010326/1069]Freedom}}
Standardize external links headers
:*"I don't think anybody anticipated the level of violence we encountered" in Iraq.—Vice President [[Dick Cheney]], [[National Press Club]] in Washington, D.C., June 19, 2006. [http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=alTj0kZnWubQ&refer=us] :*"The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an [[invasion of Iraq]] would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue."—John Heilprin, Associated Press, November 5, 2006. [http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAQ_WAR_GAMES?SITE=1010WINS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT] :*"In the bleakest assessment yet of conditions in Iraq, the 10-member [[Iraq Study Group]] bluntly said President [[George W. Bush]]'s current policy 'is not working' and urged the White House to hold direct talks with regimes in [[Iran]] and [[Syria]] on ways to reduce the bloodshed," Sheldon Alberts of CanWest News Service [http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/story.html?id=e7c3d32e-b728-4ca8-a94e-e2a5cbb3ef81&k=83014 reported] December 7, 2006. "The panel specifically called on the White House to embark on a major diplomatic initiative before the end of December, or risk having [[Iraq]] continue its 'slide toward chaos'." "The debate is over: By any definition, Iraq is in a state of civil war. Indeed, the only thing standing between Iraq and a descent into total Bosnia-like devastation is 135,000 U.S. troops—and even they are merely slowing the fall. The internecine conflict could easily spiral into one that threatens not only Iraq but also its neighbors throughout the oil-rich Persian Gulf region with instability, turmoil and war," Daniel L. Byman and [[Kenneth M. Pollack]] [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/18/AR2006081800983.html wrote] August 20, 2006, in the ''Washington Post''. "The consequences of an all-out civil war in Iraq could be dire. Considering the experiences of recent such conflicts, hundreds of thousands of people may die. Refugees and displaced people could number in the millions. And with Iraqi insurgents, militias and organized crime rings wreaking havoc on Iraq's oil infrastructure, a full-scale civil war could send global oil prices soaring even higher," Byman and Pollack wrote. "Across central Iraq, there is an exodus of people fleeing for their lives as sectarian assassins and death squads hunt them down. At ground level, Iraq is disintegrating as [[ethnic cleansing]] takes hold on a massive scale," Patrick Cockburn [http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article548945.ece reported] in ''The Independent'' (UK), May 20, 2006. In the [[war in Iraq]], the "worst-case scenario has always been a full-blown civil war between its former Sunni ruling class and the long-oppressed Shiite majority with U.S. forces caught in the middle" and the "new worst-case scenario has [[Iran]] or [[Syria]] getting directly involved as the [[Iraq Coalition Casualty Statistics|body counts rise]]. [[Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq|Iraqi security forces]] are obviously incapable of keeping the peace. Americans can't leave but don't have the numbers to impose [[martial law]] on the entire country and, in the process, expose themselves to greater risk," according to a March 1, 2006, ''Detroit Free Press'' [http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060301/OPINION01/603010326/1069 editorial]. New "outbursts of violence" in a "series of suicide attacks, car bombs and mortar barrages rocked Baghdad" February 28, 2006, killing "more than 75 people" and wounding many. Two explosions on March 1, 2006, left another 26 dead and 65 wounded, as [[Iraq]] "teetered on the brink of sectarian civil war." [http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/261155_domed.asp][http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/03/01/MNGTUHGG921.DTL][http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060228/D8G2B6EG0.html]
"The past six days of violence that have convulsed Iraq since the bombing of the al-Askariya shrine" on February 22, 2005, "could be much worse than Iraqi and Coalition officials have admitted," Chris Allbritton [http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1168677,00.html wrote] in ''TIME''. The ''Washington Post'' [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/27/AR2006022701128.html reported] February 28, 2006, "that more than 1,300 bodies had been delivered to the Baghdad morgue, directly challenging the Iraqi government’s assertion that 216 people had been killed around the country since the Wednesday bombing of the al-Askariya shrine in Samarra.
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==[[Another "new phase" of civil war in Iraq|Another "new phase" in Iraq]]==
==''Chicago Tribune'': "On the ground, it's civil war"==
"The dictionary definition says a civil war involves war between geographical sections or political factions of the same nation," Aamer Madhani [http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0604140103apr14,1,1200285.story?coll=chi-news-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true wrote] April 14, 2006. "An estimated 30,000 Iraqis have died in violence since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003. There are no accurate figures of how many were killed by U.S. troops, but slayings of Iraqis by fellow Iraqis have increased dramatically as the war has progressed.
"Many U.S. and Iraqi officials insist that the violence engulfing the country does not constitute civil war. But by any reasonable standard, 'the conflict in Iraq is a civil war,' said [[James D. Fearon|James Fearon]], a [[Stanford University]] political scientist who specializes in the study of civil conflict. 'The rate [of killings] is comparable to Sri Lanka, the Lebanese war and Bosnia,' all of which were widely regarded as civil wars," Madhani [http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0604140103apr14,1,1200285.story?coll=chi-news-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true wrote].
"[[Larry Diamond]], a former adviser to the U.S.-led [[Coalition Provisional Authority]] in Iraq and fellow at the [[Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace]], said the question is only one of semantics. 'You can use whatever language you want to describe it, but the violence is increasing and it is becoming more vengeful and polarized,' Diamond said." [http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0604140103apr14,1,1200285.story?coll=chi-news-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true]
==Background==
According to Spengler in the January 21, 2004 edition of the [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FA21Ak01.html ''Asia Times''], civil war in Iraq may be preferable, as well as advantageous, to the United States. After all, it asked, "which is better, to have Iraqis shooting at American soldiers, or at each other?"
"Top officials are scrambling to save the U.S. [[exit strategy]] after concluding that Iraq's most powerful Shiite cleric, [[Grand Ayatollah Ali al Husseini al Sistani]], is unlikely to drop his demand for elections for an interim assembly that would choose an interim government by June 30. ... [[L. Paul Bremer]] would then hand over power to the interim government."
== Related SourceWatch Resources Reports==*[[Coalition Provisional Authority]]*[[Exit Strategy from http://www.senate.gov/~foreign/hearings/2004/hrg040420a.html "IraqTransition: Civil War or Civil Society?"]]*[[Iraq has replaced Afghanistan as , Hearing before the prime training ground for foreign terrorists]]*[[Iraqi ConstitutionU.S. Senate]]Committee on Foreign Relations, April 20, 2004.*[[Iraqi Interim Government]]*[[Iraqi insurgency]]== External links ==*[[Iraqi media]]===Background===*Connie Hammond, [[Iraqi national elections]]*[[Iraqi sovereigntyhttp: Exit Strategy from Iraq]//www.freepress.org/departments/display/13/2001/101/1/15 "The Gulf War never ended,"]''Journal'', Spring 2001 (issue); ''The Free Press'', May 16, 2001.*Stephen Zunes, [[Iraqi sovereigntyhttp: June 30, 2004]]*[[Iraqi unified resistance]]*[[new Iraq]] / [[post-war /www.freepress.org/departments/display/13/2001/89 "Iraq]]*[[new Iraqi army]]*[[Occupation forces in Iraq]]*[[Oil and : 10 Years After Gulf War in Iraq,"]]*[[Operation Iraqi Freedom]]*[[Reckless escalation of adversity]]*[[Shiite Muslim uprising in Iraq]]*[[Terrorist attacks in Iraq]]*[[U''The Free Press'', October 18, 2001.S. Central Command]]
== = Articles & Commentary =======[[civil war in Iraq: External Links 2002 and 2003|2002 and 2003]]========[[civil war in Iraq: External Links 2004|2004]]====*====[[httpcivil war in Iraq://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FA17Ak02.html "When Sistani speaks, Bush listens,"External Links 2005|2005]] ========2006====*''Asia Times'', January 17, 2004.*Naomi Klein, [http[civil war in Iraq://www.commondreams.org/views04/0122External Links January-March 2006|January-06.htm "Bush's Iraq: An Appointocracy,"March 2006]] ''Globe & Mail'' (Canada), January 22, 2004. *Marc Erikson, [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FA24Ak03.html "Why Saddam's arrest ''did[[civil war in Iraq: External Links April-June 2006|April-June 2006]]'' matter,"] '*'Asia Times'', January 24, 2004[[civil war in Iraq: "The Saddam arrest could very well prove a turning point External Links July-December 2006|July- for the worse only if collective US foreign and intelligence servicesDecember 2006]]''' memory utterly fails. That - given customary State Department and CIA institutional lack of attention span - cannot, of course, be ruled out. The crucial issue is what policy the United States adopts toward elements of the Iraqi resistance cast loose by the capture of their nominal leader."*Jim Lobe, ====[[httpcivil war in Iraq://ipsnews.org/news.asp?idnewsExternal Links 2007|2007]]====26197 "U.S.-IRAQ:'Phantom Fury' Poised to Become Phantom Victory,"] Inter Press Service, November 8, 2004.
===2006===*Jim Lobe, [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB17Ak01.html "US struggles with a mutating insurgency,"] ''Asia Times'', February 17, 2006.*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4743288.stm "Shrine bombing: Iraqis react,"] BBC, February 23, 2006.*Jeremy Bowen, [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4741616.stm "Iraq's civil war nightmare,"] BBC, February 23, 2006.*Syed Saleem Shahzad, [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB24Ak01.html "Shrine attack deals blow to anti-US unity,"] ''Asia Times'', February 24, 2006.*Paul Reynolds, [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4747316.stm "Iraq chaos threatens troop withdrawal. The chaos that has overtaken Iraq is now threatening hopes among the US and its allies that they might be able to start significant troop withdrawals in the coming months,"] BBC, February 24, 2006.*Sami Moubayed, [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB25Ak02.html "Payback time in Iraq,"] ''Asia Times'', February 25, 2006.*David Gritten, [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4750320.stm "Long path to Iraq's sectarian split. For more than 1,000 years, Iraq has served as a battleground for many of the events that have defined the schism between Sunni and Shia Muslims,"Related SourceWatch Resources] BBC, February 25, 2006.*Nancy A. Youssef, [http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/13976406.htm "Sunnis say they're mobilizing to combat Shiites, protect mosques,"] Knight Ridder Newspapers, February 27, 2006.==*SpenglerIn particular, [httpalso see://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB28Ak02.html "The case for complacency in Iraq,"] ''Asia Times'', February 28, 2006.*Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay, [http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/news/nation/13984788.htm "Intelligence agencies warned about growing local insurgency in late 2003,"] Knight Ridder Newspapers, February 28, 2006.*[http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002076582 "Knight Ridder: White House Warned of Civil War in Iraq in 2003,"] ''Editor & Publisher'', February 28, 2006.*Gregory Djerejian, [http://www.belgraviadispatch.com/2006/02/spinning_the_prospective_blood.html "Spinning the Prospective Blood Bath,"Salvador option] ''The Belgravia Dispatch'', February 28, 2006.*Alexandra Zavis, [http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060228/D8G2B6EG0.html "Civil War Looms With 66 Killed in Baghdad,"] Associated Press, February 28, 2006.*Chris Allbritton, [http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1168677,00.html "Disparate Death Toll Sparks Sunni Outcry. Reports of higher casualties rates in Iraq’s recent sectarian violence stokes Sunni distrust of Government,"] ''TIME'', February 28, 2006.*Zaineb Obeid and Tom Lasseter, [http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/13983907.htm "Iraq bombings kill at least 55; Cabinet says 379 died last week,"] Knight Ridder Newspapers (''Mercury News''), February 28, 2006.*Ellen Knickmeyer and Bassam Sebti, [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpsectarian break-dyn/content/article/2006/02/27/AR2006022701128.html "Toll in Iraq's Deadly Surge: 1,300. Morgue Count Eclipses Other Tallies Since Shrine Attack,"] ''Washington Post'', February 28, 2006.*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4757964.stm "Iraq bombs claim dozens up of lives,"] BBC, February 28, 2006.*Sameer N. Yacoub, [http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/03/01/ap2560886.html "Update 26: Bomb Attacks Kill 26 in Baghdad,"] Associated Press (''Forbes''), March 1, 2006.*Kim Landers, [http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2006/s1580807.htm "Iraq on the brink of civil war,"] ABC News (Australia), March 1, 2006.*Mark Levine, [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HC01Ak05.html "Iraq: The wages of chaos,"] ''Asia Times'', March 1, 2006.*John Shovelan, [http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2006/s1581094.htm "US troops in Iraq stay out of sectarian conflict,"] ''The World Today'' - ABC News (Australia), March 1, 2006.*[http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/261155_domed.asp Editorial: "Iraq: Civil war precipice,"] ''Seattle Post-Intelligencer'', March 1, 2006.*Edward Wong, [http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/United States as a/2006/03/01/MNGTUHGG921.DTL "75 killed in spate of bomb attacks. U.S. envoy says earlier violence put rogue nation on 'brink of civil war',"] ''New York Times'' (''San Francisco Chronicle''), March 1, 2006.*[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=al5ADhOTv648&refer=top_world_news "Sunni Group Says U.S., Iraqi Government Stirring Sectarianism,"] Bloomberg News, March 1, 2006.*[http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060301/OPINION01/603010326/1069 Editorial: "Advantage, Chaos. Situation in Iraq nears worst-case worries,"] ''Detroit Free Press'', March 1, 2006.*[http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002835710_iraq01.html "Attacks, death toll climb as curfew's effects fade,"] Associated Press (''Seattle Times''), March 1, 2006.*[http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060301/NEWS06/603010422/1012 "68 killed violence in Iraq after curfew lifted,"the Middle East] ''Indy Star'', March 1, 2006.*[http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006%5C03%5C01%5Cstory_1-3-2006_pg7_2 "64 dead, 182 injured in Iraq explosions,"] ''Daily Times'' (Pakistan), March 1, 2006.*Ellen Knickmeyer, [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/28/AR2006022801466.html "Pressure Seen on Probes at Baghdad Morgue. Former U.N. Envoy Says 'Both Sides' Exerting Influence; Death Count in Dispute,"] ''Washington Post'', March 1, 2006.*[http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002113904 "'Wash Post' Cites 'Pressure' on Iraq Death Count,"] ''Editor & Publisher'', March 1, 2006.*Juan Cole, [http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2006/03/01/worst/index.html "Iraq's worst week -- and Bush's. As Americans finally begin to grasp the magnitude of the Iraq catastrophe, Bush's popularity hits a new low,"] ''Salon'', March 1, 2006.*Martin Sieff, [http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/view.php?StoryID=20060227-063336-3198r "Analysis: Iraq elections led to war,"] UPI, March 1, 2006.*Alastair Macdonald and Lutfi Abu Oun, [http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=340&ObjectID=10370568 "Bush issues Iraq warning after latest bombings,"] ''New Zealand Herald'', March 1, 2006.*Bushra Juhi, [http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1675907 "Evictions May Foreshadow Iraq Civil War. Shiites and Sunnis Being Kicked Out of Homes in Iraq May Be Possible Precursor to Civil War,"] Associated Press (ABC News), March 1, 2006.*Brian Bender, [http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2006/03/01/us_advisers_warn_threat_of_civil_war_mounting_in_iraq/ "US advisers warn threat of civil war mounting in Iraq. Baghdad leaders must take reins, Bush aides say,"] ''Boston Globe'', March 1, 2006.*Dan Murphy, [http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0302/p07s02-woiq.html "Growing friction separates Shiite, Sunni. More Iraqi families flee once-integrated neighborhoods as religious lines harden,"is fueling global terrorism] ''Christian Science Monitor'', March 2, 2006 (edition).*Michael A. Weinstein,[http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HC02Ak02.html "Civil war all but declared," ] ''Asia Times'', March 2, 2006.
[[category:Iraq]][[category:war in Iraq]]
