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{{Navbar-Operation Iraqi Freedom}} :*"I don'''Civil war t think anybody anticipated the level of violence we encountered" in Iraq'''.&mdash;Vice President [[Dick Cheney]], according to Spengler [[National Press Club]] in the January 21Washington, D.C., June 19, 2004 edition of the 2006. [http://www.atimesbloomberg.com/atimesapps/Middle_East/FA21Ak01news?pid=10000103&sid=alTj0kZnWubQ&refer=us]  :*"The U.S.html ''Asia Times''], may be preferablegovernment conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an [[invasion of Iraq]] would require 400, as well as advantageous000 troops, to the United Statesand even then chaos might ensue. After all"&mdash;John Heilprin, Associated Press, it asksNovember 5, 2006. [http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAQ_WAR_GAMES?SITE=1010WINS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT] :*"which is better, to have Iraqis shooting at American soldiersIn the bleakest assessment yet of conditions in Iraq, or at each other?" :"No one in the 10-member [[Bush administrationIraq Study Group]] wants to let slip the dogs of civil war. On the contrary, the White House still hopes that bluntly said President [[IraqGeorge W. Bush]] will set a precedent for democracy in the Muslim world. Yet civil war 's current policy 'is not working' and urged the path of least resistanceWhite House to hold direct talks with regimes in [[Iran]] and [[Syria]] on ways to reduce the bloodshed, so clearly so that the punditry " Sheldon Alberts of the world press has raised the alarm with one voice. A [http:/CanWest News Service [http://www.googlecanada.com Google] /victoriatimescolonist/news search turns up 900 hits for /story.html?id=e7c3d32e-b728-4ca8-a94e-e2a5cbb3ef81&k=83014 reported] December 7, 2006. "The panel specifically called on the search terms 'White House to embark on a major diplomatic initiative before the end of December, or risk having [[Iraq]] continue its ' and 'civil warslide toward chaos'. What " "The debate is over: By any definition, Iraq is so bad about in a state of civil war? No self. Indeed, the only thing standing between Iraq and a descent into total Bosnia-respecting state ever has been formed without onelike devastation is 135,000 U.S. All troops&mdash;and even they are merely slowing the European countries had at least fall. The internecine conflict could easily spiral into one (some of them called religious wars)that threatens not only Iraq but also its neighbors throughout the oil-rich Persian Gulf region with instability, turmoil and war," Daniel L. America has had twoByman and [[Kenneth M. The Middle East and Africa have them all the timePollack]] [http://www. States are founded on compromisewashingtonpost. Civil war is just naturecom/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/18/AR2006081800983.html wrote] August 20, 2006, in the ''Washington Post''s way . "The consequences of telling the diehards to slow downan all-out civil war in Iraq could be dire." In Considering the endexperiences of recent such conflicts, the real answer is this: "Americans are accustomed to happy endingshundreds of thousands of people may die. President [[George WRefugees and displaced people could number in the millions. Bush]] [http://wwwAnd with Iraqi insurgents, militias and organized crime rings wreaking havoc on Iraq's oil infrastructure, a full-scale civil war could send global oil prices soaring even higher," Byman and Pollack wrote.atimes.com/atimes "Across central Iraq, there is an exodus of people fleeing for their lives as sectarian assassins and death squads hunt them down. At ground level, Iraq is disintegrating as [[ethnic cleansing]] takes hold on a massive scale," Patrick Cockburn [http:/Middle_East/EK25Ak01news.html wants to be remembered] as the benefactor of the Muslim independent.co.uk/world, not as a second Genghis Khan/middle_east/article548945. Only ece reported] in ''The Independent'' (UK), May 20, 2006. In the [[war in Iraq]], the paranoid imaginings of the Muslim world "worst-case scenario has Washington set out to destabilize always been a full-blown civil war between its former Sunni ruling class and the regionlong-oppressed Shiite majority with U. S... Nonetheless, forces caught in the tragedy will proceed as Washington at each step discovers that its only viable option is middle" and the one that pushes Iraq closer to dissolution." new worst------- Apparently, case scenario has [[Iran]] or [[CIASyria]] officers in Iraq concur that '''civil war in getting directly involved as the [[IraqCoalition Casualty Statistics|body counts rise]]. [[Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq|Iraqi security forces]] are obviously incapable of keeping the peace. Americans can't leave but don'' may be t have the numbers to impose [[martial law]] on the near horizon. Warren P. Strobel entire country and Jonathan S. Landay , in the process, expose themselves to greater risk," according to a March 1, 2006, ''Detroit Free Press'' [http://www.commondreamsfreep.orgcom/headlines04apps/0122-01pbcs.htm writingdll/article?AID=/20060301/OPINION01/603010326/1069 editorial] January 22. New "outbursts of violence" in a "series of suicide attacks, car bombs and mortar barrages rocked Baghdad" February 28, 20042006, for Knight-Ridder report that killing "more than 75 people"current and former Uwounding many.S. officials ... are warning that Two explosions on March 1, 2006, left another 26 dead and 65 wounded, as Iraq "teetered on the country may be on a path to brink of sectarian civil war." This "starkly" contradicts, they say, "the upbeat assessment that President Bush gave in his State of the Union address[http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/261155_domed.asp][http://www.sfgate." "The warning echoed growing fears that Iraq's Shiite majority, which has until now grudgingly accepted the Ucom/cgi-bin/article.S. occupation, could turn to violence if its demands for direct elections are spurnedcgi?file=/c/a/2006/03/01/MNGTUHGG921. DTL][http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060228/D8G2B6EG0. Meanwhile, Iraq's Kurdish minority is pressing its demand for autonomy and shares of oil revenue. html] "'Both The past six days of violence that have convulsed Iraq since the Shiites and bombing of the Kurds think that now's their timeal-Askariya shrine" on February 22, 2005,' said one intelligence officer. 'They think that if they don't get what they want now"could be much worse than Iraqi and Coalition officials have admitted, they'll probably never get it" Chris Allbritton [http://www. Both of them feel they've been betrayed by the United States beforetime.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1168677,00.html wrote] in '" "Another senior official said the concerns over a possible civil war weren't confined to the CIA but are TIME''. The ''Washington Post'broadly held within the government,' including by regional experts at the State Department and [[National Security Council]]http://www.washingtonpost. com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/27/AR2006022701128.html reported] February 28, 2006, "Top officials are scrambling that more than 1,300 bodies had been delivered to save the U.SBaghdad morgue, directly challenging the Iraqi government’s assertion that 216 people had been killed around the country since the Wednesday bombing of the al-Askariya shrine in Samarra. [[exit strategy]] after concluding that Iraq's most powerful Shiite cleric "Hundreds of bodies were packed into the morgue, [[Grand Ayatollah Ali al Husseini al Sistani]]the paper reported, is unlikely and wailing relatives clustered around the doorway hoping to drop his demand for elections for an interim assembly that would choose an interim government by June 30claim the body of a loved one," Allbritton wrote. ... [[L. Paul Bremer]] would then hand over power  "The fresh violence could re-ignite the hostility between Sunnis and Shiites just as Iraqis struggle to recover from the interim government.worst sectarian bloodletting since the war began," Although President Bush "in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, insisted that an insurgency against the U<i>New York Times</i>' Edward Wong [http://www.Ssfgate. occupation, conducted primarily by minority Sunni Muslims who enjoyed power under [[Saddam Hussein]com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/03/01/MNGTUHGG921.DTL reported], 'will fail. "Though politicians and clerics have been calling for calm, and the Iraqi people will live in freedom,' a [http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002835710_iraq01.. [hehtml weekend curfew] didn't directly address cooled off the crisis over fury in the Shiites' political demandsstreets, people across the capital remained anxious over the possibility of new violence." "One option being informally discussed is President [[George W. Bush]], following his remarks welcoming Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi to delay the transfer of power until later in 2004White House on February 28, 2006, when asked whether he feared "an all-out civil war, which might give the " [[United Nations]] time to organize some sort of elections, said one officialhttp://www. whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/02/20060228.html responded]: "Obviously, there are some who are trying to sow the seeds of sectarian violence. But that is almost certain They destroy in order to be opposed by White House political aides who want create chaos. And now the occupation over people of Iraq and many Utheir leaders must make a choice.SThe choice is chaos or unity. troops gone by this summer to bolster Bush's re-election chances, the official said. ... 'It's all politics right now,' he said." " --------  === Other Related SourceWatch Resources [[Another "new phase" of civil war in Iraq|Another "new phase" in Iraq]]== *[[Coalition Provisional Authority]] ==''Chicago Tribune'': "On the ground, it's civil war"==*[[Future "The dictionary definition says a civil war involves war between geographical sections or political factions of Iraq Project]] *the same nation," Aamer Madhani [[Globalization of Iraq]] *[[Iraq Foundation]] *[[Iraq Stabilization Group]] *[[Iraq War Crimes Tribunal]] *[[Iraqi Governing Council]http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0604140103apr14,1,1200285.story?coll=chi-news-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true wrote] April 14, 2006. "An estimated 30,000 Iraqis have died in violence since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003. There are no accurate figures of how many were killed by U.S. troops, but slayings of Iraqis by fellow Iraqis have increased dramatically as the war has progressed. *"Many U.S. and Iraqi officials insist that the violence engulfing the country does not constitute civil war. But by any reasonable standard, 'the conflict in Iraq is a civil war,' said [[Iraqi insurgencyJames D. Fearon|James Fearon]] *, a [[Iraqi Intelligence ServiceStanford University]] *political scientist who specializes in the study of civil conflict. 'The rate [[Iraqi mediaof killings]] *[[Iraqi national elections]] *[[Iraqis comparable to Sri Lanka, the Lebanese war and Bosnia,'s oil industry]] *all of which were widely regarded as civil wars," Madhani [http://www.wikipediachicagotribune.orgcom/wikinews/nationworld/NATO NATOchi-0604140103apr14,1,1200285.story?coll=chi-news-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true wrote] .*[[new Iraqi army]] *"[[Occupation forces in IraqLarry Diamond]] *, a former adviser to the U.S.-led [[Operation Iraqi Freedom: Beginnings of a QuagmireCoalition Provisional Authority]] *in Iraq and fellow at the [[peacekeepingHoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace]] *, said the question is only one of semantics. 'You can use whatever language you want to describe it, but the violence is increasing and it is becoming more vengeful and polarized,' Diamond said." [[Transitional Iraqi Assemblyhttp://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0604140103apr14,1,1200285.story?coll=chi-news-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true]] (see [[Agreement on Political Process]]) *[[Transitional Iraqi Government]] *[[Women for a Free Iraq]]   === External Links Background== *According to Spengler in the January 21, 2004 edition of the [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FA17Ak02FA21Ak01.html When Sistani speaks, Bush listens], ''Asia Times''], January 17civil war in Iraq may be preferable, 2004as well as advantageous, to the United States. *Marc EriksonAfter all, it asked, [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FA24Ak03.html Why Saddam's arrest ''did'' matter]"which is better, ''Asia Times''to have Iraqis shooting at American soldiers, January 24, 2004or at each other?" : "The Saddam arrest could very well prove a turning point - for No one in the worse only if collective US foreign and intelligence services' memory utterly fails[[Bush administration]] wants to let slip the dogs of civil war. That - given customary State Department and On the contrary, the White House still hopes that Iraq will set a precedent for democracy in the Muslim world. Yet civil war is the path of least resistance, so clearly so that the punditry of the world press has raised the alarm with one voice. A [[CIAhttp://www.google.com Google] news search turns up 900 hits for the search terms 'Iraq' and 'civil war'. What is so bad about a civil war? No self-respecting state ever has been formed without one. All the European countries had at least one (some of them called religious wars). America has had two. The Middle East and Africa have them all the time. States are founded on compromise. Civil war is just nature's way of telling the diehards to slow down." In the end, the real answer is this: "Americans are accustomed to happy endings. President George W. Bush [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EK25Ak01.html wants to be remembered] as the benefactor of the Muslim world, not as a second Genghis Khan. Only in the paranoid imaginings of the Muslim world has Washington set out to destabilize the region. ... Nonetheless, the tragedy will proceed as Washington at each step discovers that its only viable option is the one that pushes Iraq closer to dissolution." Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay [http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0122-01.htm wrote] January 22, 2004, for Knight Ridder that "current and former U.S. officials ... are warning that the country may be on a path to civil war." This "starkly" contradicts, they said, "the upbeat assessment that President Bush gave in his [[State of the Union 2004|State of the Union address]]." "The warning echoed growing [[fear]]s that Iraq's Shiite majority, which has until now grudgingly accepted the U.S. [[occupation of Iraq|occupation]], could turn to violence if its demands for direct elections are spurned. ... Meanwhile, Iraq's Kurdish minority is pressing its demand for autonomy and shares of oil revenue. "'Both the Shiites and the Kurds think that now's their time,' said one intelligence officer. 'They think that if they don't get what they want now, they'll probably never get it. Both of them feel they've been betrayed by the United States before.'"  "Another senior official said the concerns over a possible civil war weren't confined to the [[CIA]] but are 'broadly held within the government,' including by regional experts at the [[State Department]] and [[National Security Council]].  "Top officials are scrambling to save the U.S. [[exit strategy]] after concluding that Iraq's most powerful Shiite cleric, [[Grand Ayatollah Ali al Husseini al Sistani]], is unlikely to drop his demand for elections for an interim assembly that would choose an interim government by June 30. ... [[L. Paul Bremer]] would then hand over power to the interim government." ==Reports==*[http://www.senate.gov/~foreign/hearings/2004/hrg040420a.html "Iraq Transition: Civil War or Civil Society?"], Hearing before the [[U.S. Senate]] Committee on Foreign Relations, April 20, 2004. == External links =====Background===*Connie Hammond, [http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/13/2001/101/1/15 "The Gulf War never ended,"] ''Journal'', Spring 2001 (issue); ''The Free Press'', May 16, 2001.*Stephen Zunes, [http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/13/2001/89 "Iraq: 10 Years After Gulf War,"] ''The Free Press'', October 18, 2001. === Articles & Commentary =======[[civil war in Iraq: External Links 2002 and 2003|2002 and 2003]]========[[civil war in Iraq: External Links 2004|2004]]========[[civil war in Iraq: External Links 2005|2005]]========2006====*'''[[civil war in Iraq: External Links January-March 2006|January-March 2006]]'''*'''[[civil war in Iraq: External Links April-June 2006|April-June 2006]]'''*'''[[civil war in Iraq: External Links July-December 2006|July-December 2006]]'''====[[civil war in Iraq: External Links 2007|2007]]==== == [[civil war in Iraq: Related SourceWatch Resources]] ==*In particular, also see::*[[Salvador option]]:*[[sectarian break-up of Iraq]]:*[[United States as a rogue nation]]:*[[violence in the Middle East]]:*[[War in Iraq is fueling global terrorism]] [[category:Iraq]][[category:war in Iraq]] institutional lack of attention span - cannot, of course, be ruled out. The crucial issue is what policy the United States adopts toward elements of the Iraqi resistance cast loose by the capture of their nominal leader."